Mesa County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Mesa County, CO was abnormally dry (D0) on the Nov 10 U.S. Drought Monitor map; four weeks earlier 97% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 0%. Over 90 days rain is at 174% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 276% (well above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 20–24 leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain) and the NWS forecast peaks at a 93% rain chance on Tuesday (high 60°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Mesa County with up to 5 monthly payments, and Salina UT is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 183 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 276% of normal
- Last 60 days not read yet
- Last 90 days 174% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 15, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 20–24) Leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 22–28) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 14, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 36°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny, high 57°, low 38°, 0% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 60°, low 39°, 93% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Wednesday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny, high 52°, low 34°, 19% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Partly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers, high 57°, low 38°, 77% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Friday Rain Showers, high 50°, low 32°, 86% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers, high 47°, low 30°, 18% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 15, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Mesa County is Dec 1, 2026, 16 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Mesa County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Mesa County grew about 276 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 79% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 351 pounds per acre. That was the 6th lowest of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2023 at 496 pounds per acre; worst: 2002 at 175.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Mesa County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Mesa County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Salina UT 183 mi | Nov 10 | $407 |
| Monroe UT 199 mi | Nov 11 | $407 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Guide: How to read a USDA sale barn report
Price history · Barn map · Fed vs feeder cattle
All weights at the 2 nearest barns
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
0% of the county in severe drought or worse.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 0% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 0 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Nov 10, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 6 pasture types. Up to 5 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season Improved | 2026-04-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-04-01 | 5 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-05-01 | 2025-11-28 | 5 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-04-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-04-01 | 5 |
| Forage Sorghum | 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-15 | 2026-07-15 | 3 |
| Short Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-03-01 | 2025-11-28 | 2 |
| Short Ssn Spring Sml Grn | 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31 | 2026-05-15 | 2 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Nov 5, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Mesa) · crop year 2026 - Apr 6, 2026 · Drought
Mesa declared · crop year 2026 - Jun 2, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Mesa) · crop year 2025 - May 5, 2025 · Drought
Mesa declared · crop year 2025 - May 5, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Mesa) · crop year 2025 - Mar 31, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Mesa) · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Mesa County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Nov 5, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
Screwworm (Texas Animal Health Commission)
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Mississippi | USDA Designates one Tennessee Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Hawaii and Pacific Islands | USDA Extends Application Deadline for Emergency Conservation Program Assistance for Guam and CNMI Counties for Typhoon Bavi Impacts | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Nebraska | USDA Authorizes Deadline Extension for Emergency Conservation Program in Several Wildfire-Impacted Counties | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Florida | USDA Designates 9 Alabama Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Alabama | USDA Designates 9 Alabama Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Mesa County
Forecast for the center point of Mesa County.
- Freeze on 2 nights
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Mostly Sunny 55° 36° SW 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Mon Partly Sunny 57° 38° SE 0–15 mph 0% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 60° 39° SSE 5–25 mph 93% rain
- Wed Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny 52° 34° SW 0–15 mph 19% rain
- Thu Partly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers 57° 38° SSE 5–20 mph 77% rain
- Fri Rain Showers 50° 32° SW 5–20 mph 86% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers 47° 30° NE 0–5 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 15, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No official ban list to check here, so Cownty shows the National Weather Service fire-weather alerts for the county instead: none right now.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 15, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 15, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Nov 2025 to Oct 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Oct 2026 normal 1.72 in; same month last year 2.86 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Nov 14, 2026.
Wildfires
Fire perimeter in Mesa County
- Snyder Wildfire
18,123 acres · 100% contained · perimeter of Nov 2, 2026
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 15, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 15, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Mesa County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Grand Junction 6ese weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 179-day growing season |
Apr 23 1 year in 10 it's after May 9 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 207-day growing season |
Apr 8 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 25 |
Nov 1 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 14 |
Palisade weather station (9 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 190-day growing season |
Apr 17 1 year in 10 it's after May 3 |
Oct 26 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 12 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 218-day growing season |
Apr 1 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 20 |
Nov 5 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 20 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Grand Junction 6ese, Palisade), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Nov 11, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Mesa County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.68 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.69 /cwt ($2.63 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.27 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft white wheat | $3.89 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $600.69 | $80.09 |
| Corn | $976.92 | $130.26 |
| Oats | $218.43 | $29.12 |
| Soybeans | $557.29 | $74.31 |
| Wheat | $717.97 | $95.73 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 103.8 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $667.43 |
| Corn | 215.8 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,085.47 |
| Oats | 61.6 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $242.70 |
| Soybeans | 50.88 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $619.21 |
| Wheat | 114.29 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $797.74 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $569.86 | $853.40 | $0.00 |
| Corn | $931.34 | $855.30 | $76.04 |
| Grain Sorghum | $222.18 | $184.82 | $29.62 |
| Oats | $212.89 | $195.67 | $17.22 |
| Soybeans | $546.34 | $683.34 | $0.00 |
| Wheat | $781.79 | $427.57 | $104.24 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 103.8 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $633.18 |
| Corn | 205.73 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,034.82 |
| Grain Sorghum | 46.58 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $246.87 |
| Oats | 61.6 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $236.54 |
| Soybeans | 49.88 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $607.04 |
| Wheat | 124.45 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $868.66 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Mesa County
$3,803,362
372 payments dated Jan 15, 2025 to Dec 18, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $2,262,210 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $636,394 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2024 | $294,009 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $247,185 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $222,456 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2023 | $56,338 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $33,726 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2025 | $28,907 |
Plus 4 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Mesa), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Colorado crop and pasture condition
Colorado statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (99% vs 98%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 8, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 12% | 44% | 44% |
Progress
| Colorado | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 99% | 99% | 98% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 90% | 81% | 87% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 80% | 65% | 83% |
| Corn Harvested | 77% | 65% | 79% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 9, 2026 (ESMIS), Colorado rows. Week ending Nov 8, 2026. Fetched Nov 9, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 20, 2026in 5 daysColorado EQIP/CSP/RCPP/ACEP application ranking cutoff (FY 2027)NRCS conservation programs
Details and source
NRCS takes applications year-round; apply by this date to be ranked for this fiscal year's funding.Date posted: NRCS Application Cutoff Dates page (Colorado)Source: USDA NRCS · checked Nov 14, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 16 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Mar 1, 2027in 106 daysLivestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP): application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.206(a)
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 106 daysEmergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-raised Fish (ELAP): notice of loss, application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.107
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 106 daysLivestock Indemnity Program (LIP): notice of loss, application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.305(b)
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 276 lb per acre, well below normal (79% of the 1991-2020 average of 351).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (45% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 13, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 15, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 15, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 15, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Mesa County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Mesa County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Mesa County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Nov 10, 2026, most of Mesa County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was abnormally dry (D0) on 72% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Mesa County?
No official statewide list to check: Cownty doesn't read an official statewide burn-ban list for Colorado; county commissions, sheriffs and fire districts post local fire restrictions, so check your county's own notices.
What sale barns are near Mesa County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Salina UT (183 mi), last report Nov 10, 2026; Monroe UT (199 mi), last report Nov 11, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 20, 2026: Colorado EQIP/CSP/RCPP/ACEP application ranking cutoff (FY 2027); Nov 20, 2026: Apples 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.