Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Ellis County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 23% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 32 straight weeks. Ellis County has had 128% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 151% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 61% rain chance on today (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Ellis County (county seat: Arnett) is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and Woodward is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 26 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 128% of normal
- Last 60 days 205% of normal
- Last 90 days 151% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 62°, 61% rain, wind 14–29 mph
- Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 50°, 27% rain, wind 15–28 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 43°, 6% rain, wind 6–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 43°, 15% rain, wind 5–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 14% rain, wind 5–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 67°, low 45°, 6% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 45°, 29% rain, wind 6–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Ellis County
Forecast for the center point of Ellis County.
- Windy on 3 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy 70° 62° S 14–29 mph 61% rain
- Mon Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 78° 50° SSW 15–28 mph 27% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 64° 43° NNW 6–25 mph 6% rain
- Wed Sunny 68° 43° W 5–8 mph 15% rain
- Thu Sunny 64° 41° N 5–12 mph 14% rain
- Fri Sunny 67° 45° N 2–7 mph 6% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 67° 45° WNW 6–10 mph 29% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Oklahoma Forestry Services burn-ban map, which carries county commissioners' bans and the Governor's burn-ban proclamations (source, rules). County row as of Mar 17, 2025. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.92 in; same month last year 3.05 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: RX BUFFALO WOMAN (Prescribed fire, OK), about 74 mi from the county center; 40 acres, containment not reported, perimeter of Oct 28, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Ellis County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Gage Ap weather station (5 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 185-day growing season |
Apr 17 1 year in 10 it's after May 2 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 6 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 205-day growing season |
Apr 6 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 22 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Ft Supply 3se weather station (25 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 179-day growing season |
Apr 21 1 year in 10 it's after May 5 |
Oct 19 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 4 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 200-day growing season |
Apr 11 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 27 |
Oct 28 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 15 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Gage Ap, Ft Supply 3se), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Oklahoma · County seat: Arnett
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 23% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
No burn ban is listed for Ellis County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Woodward (26 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Beaver (59 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Dodge City (106 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.