Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Ellis County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 23% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 32 straight weeks. Ellis County has had 128% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 151% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 61% rain chance on today (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Ellis County (county seat: Arnett) is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and Woodward is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 26 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 128% of normal
- Last 60 days 205% of normal
- Last 90 days 151% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 62°, 61% rain, wind 14–29 mph
- Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 50°, 27% rain, wind 15–28 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 43°, 6% rain, wind 6–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 43°, 15% rain, wind 5–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 14% rain, wind 5–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 67°, low 45°, 6% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 45°, 29% rain, wind 6–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Woodward 26 mi | Oct 29 | $394 |
| Beaver 59 mi | Oct 27 | $433 |
| Dodge City 106 mi | Oct 28 | $391 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Oklahoma · County seat: Arnett
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 23% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
No burn ban is listed for Ellis County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Woodward (26 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Beaver (59 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Dodge City (106 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.