Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Ellis County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 23% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 32 straight weeks. Ellis County has had 128% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 151% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 61% rain chance on today (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Ellis County (county seat: Arnett) is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and Woodward is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 26 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 128% of normal
- Last 60 days 205% of normal
- Last 90 days 151% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 62°, 61% rain, wind 14–29 mph
- Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 50°, 27% rain, wind 15–28 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 43°, 6% rain, wind 6–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 43°, 15% rain, wind 5–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 14% rain, wind 5–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 67°, low 45°, 6% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 45°, 29% rain, wind 6–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Ellis County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.67 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.47 /cwt ($2.50 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.61 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $2.64 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.05 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $166.20 | $22.16 |
| Canola | $204.15 | $27.22 |
| Corn | $801.01 | $106.80 |
| Oats | $138.93 | $18.52 |
| Peanuts | $1,196.87 | $159.58 |
| Soybeans | $514.24 | $68.57 |
| Wheat irrigated | $210.83 | $28.11 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $145.94 | $19.46 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 28.72 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $184.67 |
| Canola | 874.1 pound/ac × $0.26 | $226.83 |
| Corn | 176.94 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $890.01 |
| Oats | 39.18 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $154.37 |
| Peanuts | 4221.78 pound/ac × $0.32 | $1,329.86 |
| Soybeans | 46.95 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $571.38 |
| Wheat irrigated | 33.56 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $234.25 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 23.23 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $162.15 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $166.29 | $165.38 | $0.91 |
| Canola | $208.12 | $188.02 | $20.10 |
| Corn | $795.57 | $731.08 | $64.49 |
| Grain Sorghum | $228.67 | $174.47 | $30.49 |
| Oats | $137.30 | $128.33 | $8.97 |
| Peanuts | $1,175.30 | $974.23 | $156.71 |
| Soybeans | $521.36 | $499.80 | $21.56 |
| Wheat irrigated | $219.37 | $175.68 | $29.25 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $154.60 | $154.58 | $0.02 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 30.29 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $184.77 |
| Canola | 891.08 pound/ac × $0.26 | $231.24 |
| Corn | 175.74 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $883.97 |
| Grain Sorghum | 47.94 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $254.08 |
| Oats | 39.73 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $152.56 |
| Peanuts | 4145.67 pound/ac × $0.32 | $1,305.89 |
| Soybeans | 47.6 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $579.29 |
| Wheat irrigated | 34.92 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $243.74 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 24.61 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $171.78 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Ellis County
$11,135,751
2,001 payments dated Jan 3, 2025 to Dec 19, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Ecpcof | – | $3,830,521 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $2,054,782 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $1,566,102 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $1,195,838 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $550,561 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $510,439 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $256,993 |
| CRP annual rent | 2023 | $181,185 |
Plus 20 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Ellis), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Oklahoma crop and pasture condition
Oklahoma statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is behind normal (51% vs 69%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 49% | 34% | 17% +4 vs last week |
| Cotton | 63% | 30% | 7% -2 vs last week |
| Peanut | 9% | 19% | 72% +6 vs last week |
Progress
| Oklahoma | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 51% | 37% | 69% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 32% | 18% | 47% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 66% | 61% | 56% |
| Cotton Harvested | 17% | 9% | 27% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Oklahoma rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Oklahoma · County seat: Arnett
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 23% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
No burn ban is listed for Ellis County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Woodward (26 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Beaver (59 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Dodge City (106 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.