Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Ellis County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 23% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 32 straight weeks. Ellis County has had 128% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 151% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 61% rain chance on today (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Ellis County (county seat: Arnett) is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and Woodward is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 26 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 128% of normal
- Last 60 days 205% of normal
- Last 90 days 151% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 62°, 61% rain, wind 14–29 mph
- Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 50°, 27% rain, wind 15–28 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 43°, 6% rain, wind 6–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 43°, 15% rain, wind 5–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 14% rain, wind 5–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 67°, low 45°, 6% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 45°, 29% rain, wind 6–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Woodward 26 mi | Oct 29 | $394 |
| Beaver 59 mi | Oct 27 | $433 |
| Dodge City 106 mi | Oct 28 | $391 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
73% of the county in severe drought or worse, 32 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 73% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 32 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 6 pasture types. Up to 5 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Crabgrass | 2026-04-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-04-21 | 5 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-04-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-04-21 | 5 |
| Warm Season Improved | 2026-04-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-04-21 | 5 |
| Forage Sorghum | 2026-07-01 to 2026-10-31 | 2026-07-01 | 4 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-15 to 2026-05-15 | 2026-04-20 | 4 |
| Short Ssn Spring Sml Grn | 2026-03-16 to 2026-05-15 | 2026-04-20 | 2 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- May 6, 2026 · Drought
Ellis declared · crop year 2026 - May 6, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Ellis) · crop year 2026 - Apr 15, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Ellis) · crop year 2026 - Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Ellis) · crop year 2026 - Jun 2, 2025 · Drought
Ellis declared · crop year 2025 - Jun 2, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Ellis) · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Ellis County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Animal health notices: Oklahoma
Statewide notices from the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry (ODAFF). The agency does not publish county-by-county zones, so these are not specific to Ellis County.
- Jun 15, 2026 status
New World screwworm: there are no confirmed cases in Oklahoma - Jun 4, 2026 news release
New World Screwworm Confirmed in Texas
Suspect a case? Call the State Veterinarian's Office at 405-522-6141 (official page).
Source: Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry (ODAFF) (ag.ok.gov, ag.ok.gov); each item is dated by the agency. Latest item as of Jun 15, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Ellis County
Forecast for the center point of Ellis County.
- Windy on 3 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy 70° 62° S 14–29 mph 61% rain
- Mon Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 78° 50° SSW 15–28 mph 27% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 64° 43° NNW 6–25 mph 6% rain
- Wed Sunny 68° 43° W 5–8 mph 15% rain
- Thu Sunny 64° 41° N 5–12 mph 14% rain
- Fri Sunny 67° 45° N 2–7 mph 6% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 67° 45° WNW 6–10 mph 29% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Oklahoma Forestry Services burn-ban map, which carries county commissioners' bans and the Governor's burn-ban proclamations (source, rules). County row as of Mar 17, 2025. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.92 in; same month last year 3.05 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: RX BUFFALO WOMAN (Prescribed fire, OK), about 74 mi from the county center; 40 acres, containment not reported, perimeter of Oct 28, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Ellis County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Gage Ap weather station (5 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 185-day growing season |
Apr 17 1 year in 10 it's after May 2 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 6 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 205-day growing season |
Apr 6 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 22 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Ft Supply 3se weather station (25 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 179-day growing season |
Apr 21 1 year in 10 it's after May 5 |
Oct 19 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 4 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 200-day growing season |
Apr 11 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 27 |
Oct 28 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 15 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Gage Ap, Ft Supply 3se), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Ellis County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.67 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.47 /cwt ($2.50 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.61 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $2.64 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.05 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $166.20 | $22.16 |
| Canola | $204.15 | $27.22 |
| Corn | $801.01 | $106.80 |
| Oats | $138.93 | $18.52 |
| Peanuts | $1,196.87 | $159.58 |
| Soybeans | $514.24 | $68.57 |
| Wheat irrigated | $210.83 | $28.11 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $145.94 | $19.46 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 28.72 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $184.67 |
| Canola | 874.1 pound/ac × $0.26 | $226.83 |
| Corn | 176.94 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $890.01 |
| Oats | 39.18 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $154.37 |
| Peanuts | 4221.78 pound/ac × $0.32 | $1,329.86 |
| Soybeans | 46.95 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $571.38 |
| Wheat irrigated | 33.56 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $234.25 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 23.23 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $162.15 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $166.29 | $165.38 | $0.91 |
| Canola | $208.12 | $188.02 | $20.10 |
| Corn | $795.57 | $731.08 | $64.49 |
| Grain Sorghum | $228.67 | $174.47 | $30.49 |
| Oats | $137.30 | $128.33 | $8.97 |
| Peanuts | $1,175.30 | $974.23 | $156.71 |
| Soybeans | $521.36 | $499.80 | $21.56 |
| Wheat irrigated | $219.37 | $175.68 | $29.25 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $154.60 | $154.58 | $0.02 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 30.29 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $184.77 |
| Canola | 891.08 pound/ac × $0.26 | $231.24 |
| Corn | 175.74 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $883.97 |
| Grain Sorghum | 47.94 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $254.08 |
| Oats | 39.73 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $152.56 |
| Peanuts | 4145.67 pound/ac × $0.32 | $1,305.89 |
| Soybeans | 47.6 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $579.29 |
| Wheat irrigated | 34.92 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $243.74 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 24.61 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $171.78 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Ellis County
$11,135,751
2,001 payments dated Jan 3, 2025 to Dec 19, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Ecpcof | – | $3,830,521 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $2,054,782 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $1,566,102 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $1,195,838 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $550,561 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $510,439 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $256,993 |
| CRP annual rent | 2023 | $181,185 |
Plus 20 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Ellis), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Oklahoma crop and pasture condition
Oklahoma statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is behind normal (51% vs 69%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 49% | 34% | 17% +4 vs last week |
| Cotton | 63% | 30% | 7% -2 vs last week |
| Peanut | 9% | 19% | 72% +6 vs last week |
Progress
| Oklahoma | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 51% | 37% | 69% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 32% | 18% | 47% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 66% | 61% | 56% |
| Cotton Harvested | 17% | 9% | 27% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Oklahoma rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 1, 2026todayProperty taxes due (bills payable from November 1)Oklahoma property tax · November 1 every year · 68 O.S. § 2913
Details and source
Date posted: Oklahoma Statutes, 68 O.S. § 2913 (OSCN)Source: Oklahoma Statutes (OSCN) · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 30 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Dec 31, 2026in 60 daysPay at least half by this date, or the whole year's tax is delinquent January 1Oklahoma property tax · December 31 every year · 68 O.S. § 2913
Details and source
Date posted: Oklahoma Statutes, 68 O.S. § 2913 (OSCN)Source: Oklahoma Statutes (OSCN) · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 120 daysLivestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP): application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.206(a)
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 120 daysEmergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-raised Fish (ELAP): notice of loss, application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.107
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Coming up: PRF rainfall insurance for 2027 (30 days left) · ARC/PLC 2026 election and enrollment (40 days left) · LFP, LIP and ELAP for 2026 losses (120 days left)
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 2,265 lb per acre, well above normal (116% of the 1991-2020 average of 1,955).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (79% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 1, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Oklahoma · County seat: Arnett
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 23% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
No burn ban is listed for Ellis County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Woodward (26 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Beaver (59 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Dodge City (106 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.