Carson County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Carson County, TX in severe drought (D2), with 4% at extreme drought (D3); week 32 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 150% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 133% (above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 68% (high 68°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Carson County (county seat: Panhandle) with up to 5 monthly payments, and Wildorado is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 45 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 133% of normal
- Last 60 days 233% of normal
- Last 90 days 150% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 68°, low 60°, 68% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 70°, low 48°, 7% rain, wind 20–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 61°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 44°, 11% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 62°, low 41°, 7% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 63°, low 44°, 9% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 63°, low 43°, 26% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Carson County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Carson County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Carson County
Forecast for the center point of Carson County.
- Windy on 3 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy 68° 60° S 15–25 mph 68% rain
- Mon Sunny 70° 48° SW 20–25 mph 7% rain
- Tue Sunny 61° 43° NNW 5–25 mph 2% rain
- Wed Sunny 66° 44° SW 5–10 mph 11% rain
- Thu Sunny 62° 41° NNW 5–15 mph 7% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 63° 44° W 5–10 mph 9% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 63° 43° NW 5–10 mph 26% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Feb 9, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.84 in; same month last year 2.62 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (92 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Carson County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Panhandle weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 196-day growing season |
Apr 15 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 29 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 15 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 215-day growing season |
Apr 3 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 20 |
Nov 6 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 25 |
Borger Hutchinson Co Ap weather station (20 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 209-day growing season |
Apr 6 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 21 |
Nov 2 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 19 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 232-day growing season |
Mar 25 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 11 |
Nov 10 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 28 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Panhandle, Borger Hutchinson Co Ap), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Texas · County seat: Panhandle
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Carson County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Carson County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Carson County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Carson County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 4% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Carson County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Carson County (since Feb 9, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Carson County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Wildorado (45 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Tulia (65 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Dalhart (81 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.