Carson County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Carson County, TX in severe drought (D2), with 4% at extreme drought (D3); week 32 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 150% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 133% (above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 68% (high 68°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Carson County (county seat: Panhandle) with up to 5 monthly payments, and Wildorado is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 45 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 133% of normal
- Last 60 days 233% of normal
- Last 90 days 150% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 68°, low 60°, 68% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 70°, low 48°, 7% rain, wind 20–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 61°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 44°, 11% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 62°, low 41°, 7% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 63°, low 44°, 9% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 63°, low 43°, 26% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Carson County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Carson County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Drought, past 12 months
71% of the county in severe drought or worse, 32 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 71% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 32 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Texas · County seat: Panhandle
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Carson County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Carson County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Carson County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Carson County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 4% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Carson County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Carson County (since Feb 9, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Carson County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Wildorado (45 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Tulia (65 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Dalhart (81 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.