Carson County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Carson County, TX in severe drought (D2), with 4% at extreme drought (D3); week 32 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 150% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 133% (above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 68% (high 68°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Carson County (county seat: Panhandle) with up to 5 monthly payments, and Wildorado is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 45 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 133% of normal
- Last 60 days 233% of normal
- Last 90 days 150% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 68°, low 60°, 68% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 70°, low 48°, 7% rain, wind 20–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 61°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 44°, 11% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 62°, low 41°, 7% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 63°, low 44°, 9% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 63°, low 43°, 26% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Carson County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Carson County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Carson County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.77 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.55 /cwt ($2.55 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.50 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.61 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $995.31 | $132.71 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $457.54 | $61.01 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $181.31 | $24.17 |
| Oats | $224.57 | $29.94 |
| Safflower | $91.59 | $12.21 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $989.59 | $131.94 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $319.86 | $42.65 |
| Soybeans | $485.55 | $64.74 |
| Sunflower Seed | $324.27 | $43.24 |
| Wheat irrigated | $328.61 | $43.81 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $155.11 | $20.68 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 219.86 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,105.90 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 95.92 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $508.38 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 38.01 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $201.45 |
| Oats | 63.33 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $249.52 |
| Safflower | 367.0 pound/ac × $0.28 | $101.77 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 2550.55 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,099.54 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 824.4 pound/ac × $0.43 | $355.40 |
| Soybeans | 44.33 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $539.50 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1434.33 pound/ac × $0.25 | $360.30 |
| Wheat irrigated | 52.31 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $365.12 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 24.69 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $172.34 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $287.29 | $16.38 | $38.31 |
| Corn | $991.50 | $950.85 | $40.65 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $453.53 | $402.53 | $51.00 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $201.82 | $272.57 | $0.00 |
| Oats | $218.87 | $203.49 | $15.38 |
| Peanuts | $1,000.10 | $979.95 | $20.15 |
| Safflower | $122.52 | $90.17 | $16.34 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $869.46 | $816.79 | $52.67 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $342.09 | $660.76 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans | $544.03 | $294.00 | $72.54 |
| Sunflower Seed | $326.35 | $272.25 | $43.51 |
| Wheat irrigated | $317.56 | $320.45 | $0.00 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $175.20 | $255.88 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 52.33 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $319.21 |
| Corn | 219.02 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,101.67 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 95.08 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $503.92 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 42.31 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $224.24 |
| Oats | 63.33 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $243.19 |
| Peanuts | 3527.67 pound/ac × $0.32 | $1,111.22 |
| Safflower | 494.67 pound/ac × $0.28 | $136.13 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 2240.95 pound/ac × $0.43 | $966.07 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 881.69 pound/ac × $0.43 | $380.10 |
| Soybeans | 49.67 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $604.48 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1444.67 pound/ac × $0.25 | $362.61 |
| Wheat irrigated | 50.55 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $352.84 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 27.89 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $194.67 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Carson County
$21,733,477
1,750 payments dated Jan 10, 2025 to Dec 11, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $11,663,976 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $5,094,693 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $2,725,659 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $735,705 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $345,465 |
| CRP annual rent | 2023 | $209,437 |
| CRP annual rent | 2024 | $202,430 |
| Agricultural Risk Coverage - Individual | 2024 | $184,953 |
Plus 16 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Carson), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Texas · County seat: Panhandle
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Carson County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Carson County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Carson County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Carson County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 4% of the county. 32 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Carson County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Carson County (since Feb 9, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Carson County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Wildorado (45 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Tulia (65 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Dalhart (81 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.