Shelby County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Shelby County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 21% at extreme drought (D3); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 9 straight weeks. Rain has run 26% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 49% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 97% rain chance on Tuesday (high 76°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Shelby County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 3 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Hope, 134 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 26% of normal
- Last 60 days 62% of normal
- Last 90 days 49% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 83°, low 61°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Mostly Cloudy, high 81°, low 66°, 44% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 76°, low 47°, 97% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 74°, low 44°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 77°, low 44°, 9% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 75°, low 42°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 72°, low 42°, 17% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Shelby County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Shelby County
Forecast for the center point of Shelby County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 83° 61° NE 0–5 mph 5% rain
- Mon Mostly Cloudy 81° 66° SE 5–10 mph 44% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 76° 47° SW 0–10 mph 97% rain
- Wed Mostly Sunny 74° 44° NW 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 77° 44° W 0–5 mph 9% rain
- Fri Sunny 75° 42° N 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 72° 42° NE 0–5 mph 17% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Sep 17, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.73 in; same month last year 0.46 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: SMCK WINN (Wildfire, LA), about 67 mi from the county center; 43 acres, containment not reported, perimeter of Sep 14, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Shelby County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Center weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 248-day growing season |
Mar 13 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 4 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 276-day growing season |
Feb 28 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 18 |
Nov 28 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 8 |
Carthage weather station (28 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 255-day growing season |
Mar 8 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 31 |
Nov 19 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 284-day growing season |
Feb 24 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 16 |
Dec 2 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 10 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Center, Carthage), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Shelby County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Shelby County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 3 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Shelby County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Shelby County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 21% of the county. 9 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Shelby County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Shelby County (since Sep 17, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Shelby County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Hope (134 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Giddings (199 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.