Shelby County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Shelby County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 21% at extreme drought (D3); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 9 straight weeks. Rain has run 26% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 49% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 97% rain chance on Tuesday (high 76°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Shelby County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 3 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Hope, 134 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 26% of normal
- Last 60 days 62% of normal
- Last 90 days 49% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 83°, low 61°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Mostly Cloudy, high 81°, low 66°, 44% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 76°, low 47°, 97% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 74°, low 44°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 77°, low 44°, 9% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 75°, low 42°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 72°, low 42°, 17% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Shelby County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Shelby County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.61 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.46 /cwt ($2.50 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.78 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.78 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.14 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $416.48 | $578.24 | $0.00 |
| Wheat | $280.62 | $172.04 | $37.42 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 92.0 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $462.76 |
| Wheat | 44.67 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $311.80 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Shelby County
$870,401
366 payments dated Jan 23, 2025 to Sep 17, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $435,121 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $230,353 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $75,479 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $70,890 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2023 | $21,690 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $13,855 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2024 | $12,514 |
| Livestock Indeminity Payments Program | 2025 | $10,500 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Shelby), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Shelby County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Shelby County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 3 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Shelby County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Shelby County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 21% of the county. 9 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Shelby County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Shelby County (since Sep 17, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Shelby County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Hope (134 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Giddings (199 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.