Refugio County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Refugio County, TX was in severe drought (D2), with 15% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 8 weeks running. Refugio County has had 73% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 80% over 90 days; the best rain chance this week is 82% on Tuesday (high 84°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain). Refugio County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 129 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 73% of normal
- Last 60 days 106% of normal
- Last 90 days 80% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 85°, low 69°, 3% rain, wind 2–6 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 85°, low 70°, 3% rain, wind 2–12 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 84°, low 57°, 82% rain, wind 2–8 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 78°, low 55°, 1% rain, wind 1–7 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 80°, low 56°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 78°, low 55°, 15% rain, wind 1–7 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 76°, low 56°, 33% rain, wind 2–7 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Refugio County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Refugio County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Refugio County
Forecast for the center point of Refugio County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 85° 69° ENE 2–6 mph 3% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 85° 70° SE 2–12 mph 3% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 84° 57° WSW 2–8 mph 82% rain
- Wed Sunny 78° 55° NNW 1–7 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 80° 56° E 0–5 mph 15% rain
- Fri Sunny 78° 55° NNE 1–7 mph 15% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 76° 56° ENE 2–7 mph 33% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026 old. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Sep 8, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 5.09 in; same month last year 3.91 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (92 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Refugio County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Refugio 2 Nw weather station (8 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 283-day growing season |
Feb 27 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 19 |
Dec 2 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 10 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 316-day growing season |
Feb 7 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 9 |
Dec 18 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 23 |
Welder Wildlife Foundation weather station (21 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 283-day growing season |
Feb 24 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 15 |
Dec 1 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 9 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 323-day growing season |
Jan 31 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 5 |
Dec 18 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 22 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Refugio 2 Nw, Welder Wildlife Foundation), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Refugio County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Refugio County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Refugio County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Refugio County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 15% of the county. 8 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Refugio County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Refugio County (since Sep 8, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Refugio County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (129 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.