Osage County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Osage County, OK was abnormally dry (D0) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 27% at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 27%. Osage County has had 105% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 72% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; Monday carries the week's highest rain chance at 80% (high 76°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Osage County with up to 3 monthly payments, and Tulsa is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 44 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 105% of normal
- Last 60 days 97% of normal
- Last 90 days 72% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy, high 72°, low 61°, 6% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Monday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 76°, low 57°, 80% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 47°, 8% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 45°, 2% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 45°, 26% rain, wind 5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 68°, low 46°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 47°, 24% rain, wind 5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Osage County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Osage County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Osage County
Forecast for the center point of Osage County.
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy 72° 61° SE 5–15 mph 6% rain
- Mon Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 76° 57° S 10–20 mph 80% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 70° 47° W 5–15 mph 8% rain
- Wed Sunny 68° 45° NW 0–10 mph 2% rain
- Thu Chance Rain Showers 68° 45° N 5 mph 26% rain
- Fri Sunny 68° 46° N 0–5 mph 5% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 70° 47° NW 5 mph 24% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Oklahoma Forestry Services burn-ban map, which carries county commissioners' bans and the Governor's burn-ban proclamations (source, rules). County row as of Aug 22, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.58 in; same month last year 3.68 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Osage County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Pawhuska weather station (5 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 204-day growing season |
Apr 6 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 23 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 13 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 224-day growing season |
Mar 28 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 11 |
Nov 6 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 21 |
Ralston weather station (20 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 196-day growing season |
Apr 11 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 27 |
Oct 24 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 7 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 216-day growing season |
Mar 31 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 17 |
Nov 1 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 17 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Pawhuska, Ralston), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Osage County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Osage County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 3 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Osage County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Osage County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 27% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Osage County?
No burn ban is listed for Osage County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Osage County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Tulsa (44 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Siloam Springs (109 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; El Reno (115 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.