McKinley County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of McKinley County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with a sliver (<1%) at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 97% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 1%. Over 90 days rain is at 139% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 224% (well above normal); today carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 59°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 99 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 224% of normal
- Last 60 days 210% of normal
- Last 90 days 139% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 59°, low 38°, 90% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 51°, low 32°, 11% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 56°, low 32°, 0% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 58°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 54°, low 34°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 33°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 52°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 2 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
McKinley County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Loading prices…
Loading drought…
Loading programs…
Weather for McKinley County
Forecast for the center point of McKinley County.
- Flood Warning
- Flood Watch
- Freeze on 4 nights
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms 59° 38° SW 15–25 mph 90% rain
- Mon Mostly Sunny 51° 32° W 5–20 mph 11% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 56° 32° NW 0–10 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 58° 32° SW 0–15 mph 5% rain
- Thu Sunny 54° 34° NE 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 55° 33° W 0–10 mph 5% rain
- Sat Sunny 52° 32° N 0–10 mph 5% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No official ban list to check here, so Cownty shows the National Weather Service fire-weather alerts for the county instead: none right now. State fire-restrictions page.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 2:09PM MST until November 2 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 3:31PM MST until November 1 at 9:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 3:54PM MST until November 1 at 10:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.28 in; same month last year 1.66 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest McKinley County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Gallup Muni Ap weather station (31 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 119-day growing season |
May 31 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 14 |
Sep 28 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 17 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 140-day growing season |
May 17 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 2 |
Oct 5 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 26 |
Grants Ap weather station (35 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 137-day growing season |
May 17 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 1 |
Oct 3 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 21 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 158-day growing season |
May 4 1 year in 10 it's after May 21 |
Oct 11 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 30 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Gallup Muni Ap, Grants Ap), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Loading money…
Loading deadlines…
Loading land…
Common questions and nearby counties
Is McKinley County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in McKinley County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of McKinley County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in McKinley County?
No official statewide list to check: this county is not on the official New Mexico state map; check the county's own fire-restriction notices.
What sale barns are near McKinley County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (99 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.