McKinley County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of McKinley County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with a sliver (<1%) at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 97% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 1%. Over 90 days rain is at 139% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 224% (well above normal); today carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 59°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 99 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 224% of normal
- Last 60 days 210% of normal
- Last 90 days 139% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 59°, low 38°, 90% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 51°, low 32°, 11% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 56°, low 32°, 0% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 58°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 54°, low 34°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 33°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 52°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 2 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
McKinley County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | McKinley County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.74 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.86 /cwt ($2.72 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.53 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in McKinley County
$690,441
801 payments dated Jan 2, 2025 to Dec 18, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $222,140 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $187,923 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $132,729 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $123,210 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $16,472 |
| Cfapcca2 | 2020 | $5,340 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $1,277 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief Program - Caa | 2022 | $529 |
Plus 2 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (McKinley), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
New Mexico crop and pasture condition
New Mexico statewide, not just your county. From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 52% | 33% | 15% -3 vs last week |
Progress
| New Mexico | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), New Mexico rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is McKinley County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in McKinley County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of McKinley County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in McKinley County?
No official statewide list to check: this county is not on the official New Mexico state map; check the county's own fire-restriction notices.
What sale barns are near McKinley County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (99 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.