McKinley County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of McKinley County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with a sliver (<1%) at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 97% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 1%. Over 90 days rain is at 139% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 224% (well above normal); today carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 59°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 99 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 224% of normal
- Last 60 days 210% of normal
- Last 90 days 139% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 59°, low 38°, 90% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 51°, low 32°, 11% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 56°, low 32°, 0% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 58°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 54°, low 34°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 33°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 52°, low 32°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 2 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
McKinley County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 2 pasture types. Up to 4 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-06-01 | 2025-11-01 | 4 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-28 | 4 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
McKinley declared · crop year 2026 - Apr 6, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for McKinley) · crop year 2026 - May 6, 2025 · Drought
McKinley declared · crop year 2025 - Apr 14, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for McKinley) · crop year 2025 - Mar 31, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for McKinley) · crop year 2025 - Mar 25, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for McKinley) · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open McKinley County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Animal health notices: New Mexico
Statewide notices from the New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board. The agency does not publish county-by-county zones, so these are not specific to McKinley County.
- Oct 27, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm cases in Doña Ana County - Oct 23, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Hidalgo County - Oct 21, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Otero County - Oct 15, 2026 news release
NM confirms two additional New World screwworm cases
Suspect a case? Call the New Mexico Livestock Board at 505-841-6161 (official page).
Source: New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board (nmdeptag.nmsu.edu); each item is dated by the agency. Latest item as of Oct 27, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is McKinley County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. McKinley County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in McKinley County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of McKinley County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in McKinley County?
No official statewide list to check: this county is not on the official New Mexico state map; check the county's own fire-restriction notices.
What sale barns are near McKinley County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (99 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.