Karnes County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Karnes County, TX in severe drought (D2); week 7 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 60% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 67% (below normal); Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 73% (high 79°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain). Karnes County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 104 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 67% of normal
- Last 60 days 69% of normal
- Last 90 days 60% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 68°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 85°, low 69°, 12% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 79°, low 55°, 73% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 76°, low 54°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 79°, low 56°, 8% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 76°, low 54°, 15% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 73°, low 54°, 30% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Karnes County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Karnes County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Karnes County
Forecast for the center point of Karnes County.
- Today Partly Sunny 84° 68° ESE 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 85° 69° SSE 5–10 mph 12% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 79° 55° WNW 0–10 mph 73% rain
- Wed Sunny 76° 54° NE 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 79° 56° ESE 0–5 mph 8% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 76° 54° NNE 0–10 mph 15% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 73° 54° NE 0–10 mph 30% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Sep 10, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.81 in; same month last year 1.36 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Karnes County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Floresville weather station (24 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 261-day growing season |
Mar 6 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 30 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 292-day growing season |
Feb 21 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 14 |
Dec 3 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 13 |
Nixon weather station (26 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 260-day growing season |
Mar 7 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 30 |
Nov 22 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 293-day growing season |
Feb 20 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 14 |
Dec 4 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 13 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Floresville, Nixon), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Karnes County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Karnes County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Karnes County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Karnes County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 100% of the county. 7 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Karnes County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Karnes County (since Sep 10, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Karnes County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (104 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.