Karnes County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Karnes County, TX in severe drought (D2); week 7 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 60% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 67% (below normal); Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 73% (high 79°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain). Karnes County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 104 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 67% of normal
- Last 60 days 69% of normal
- Last 90 days 60% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 68°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 85°, low 69°, 12% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 79°, low 55°, 73% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 76°, low 54°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 79°, low 56°, 8% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 76°, low 54°, 15% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 73°, low 54°, 30% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Karnes County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Karnes County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 7 pasture types. Up to 4 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Ryegrass | 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2026-01-01 | 4 |
| Full Season Improved | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-01 | 4 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2025-11-01 | 4 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-01 | 4 |
| Short Ssn Spring Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-05-31 | 2025-11-15 | 4 |
| Short Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-02-15 | 2025-11-01 | 3 |
| Shrt Ssn Fall_Wtr Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-02-15 | 2025-11-15 | 3 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Karnes declared · crop year 2026 - Mar 31, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Karnes) · crop year 2025 - Mar 25, 2025 · Drought
Karnes declared · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Karnes County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 15, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Screwworm (Texas Animal Health Commission)
Not in a screwworm zone
Nearest infested zone: 184 mi straight-line (Infested Zone 04). Statewide: 13 counties touch an infested zone, 1 the surveillance zone. See the map.
Latest statewide screwworm orders and animal-health alerts
- Nov 1, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - Jeff Davis and Presidio Counties - Oct 31, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - Culberson and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Modified Executive Director Order - Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Second Modified Executive Director Order - El Paso and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 29, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - El Paso County - Oct 9, 2026 fever tick
TAHC Issues Cattle Fever Tick Quarantine Zone Requirements Reminder - Oct 1, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Requirements for Animals Moving from Affected States - Sep 15, 2026 CWD
TAHC Issues Annual Reminder of Chronic Wasting Disease Requirements for Exotic Susceptible Species - Aug 31, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Releases First Eligible New World Screwworm Infested Zones - 02.A and 03 - Aug 24, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Movement Requirements for Cattle From Mexico
Check wounds and navels. Suspect a case? Call the Commission's veterinarian on call, 1-800-550-8242.
Source: Texas Animal Health Commission screwworm zone map (zones as of Nov 1, 2026), screwworm orders and news releases; each item is dated by the Commission. Its orders, not this page, set movement rules. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Karnes County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Karnes County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Karnes County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Karnes County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 100% of the county. 7 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Karnes County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Karnes County (since Sep 10, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Karnes County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (104 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.