Jefferson County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Jefferson County, TX was in moderate drought (D1), with 15% at severe drought (D2), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 3 weeks running. Jefferson County has had 36% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 78% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 82% (high 81°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Jefferson County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 168 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 36% of normal
- Last 60 days 60% of normal
- Last 90 days 78% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 80°, low 67°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 80°, low 71°, 15% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 81°, low 59°, 82% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 76°, low 55°, 4% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 77°, low 56°, 15% rain, wind 0 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 76°, low 53°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 73°, low 53°, 18% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe drought (D2) began (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 13, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 (11 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Jefferson County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Jefferson County
Forecast for the center point of Jefferson County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 80° 67° E 0–5 mph 2% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 80° 71° SE 5–10 mph 15% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 81° 59° SW 5–10 mph 82% rain
- Wed Sunny 76° 55° NW 0–5 mph 4% rain
- Thu Sunny 77° 56° 0 mph 15% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 76° 53° N 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Sat Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 73° 53° NE 0–5 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Oct 23, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 6.14 in; same month last year 4.05 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Jefferson County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Port Arthur Se Tx Ap weather station (10 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 301-day growing season |
Feb 14 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 13 |
Dec 7 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 15 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 338-day growing season |
Jan 28 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 3 |
Jan 1 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 1 |
Beaumont Rsch Ctr weather station (17 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 291-day growing season |
Feb 18 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 15 |
Dec 2 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 9 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 333-day growing season |
Jan 29 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 1 |
Dec 29 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 28 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Port Arthur Se Tx Ap, Beaumont Rsch Ctr), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Jefferson County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Jefferson County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Jefferson County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Jefferson County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 15% of the county. 3 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Jefferson County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Jefferson County (since Oct 23, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Jefferson County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (168 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.