Jeff Davis County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Jeff Davis County, TX showed no drought on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, though 34% at abnormally dry (D0); 0% of the county is in moderate drought (D1) or worse, down from 69% four weeks earlier. Over 90 days rain is at 76% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 127% (above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 34% on Friday (high 63°). Jeff Davis County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 3 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Santa Teresa, 170 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 127% of normal
- Last 60 days 108% of normal
- Last 90 days 76% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Patchy Blowing Dust, high 70°, low 45°, 0% rain, wind 10–35 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 64°, low 43°, 0% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 50°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 66°, low 43°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 63°, low 43°, 34% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 56°, low 39°, 30% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Sunday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 38°, 9% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Jeff Davis County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Jeff Davis County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Jeff Davis County grew about 452 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 58% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 778 pounds per acre. That was the 5th lowest of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2010 at 1,292 pounds per acre; worst: 2002 at 377.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Jeff Davis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Jeff Davis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Jeff Davis County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.67 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.39 /cwt ($2.46 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.52 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.64 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | $262.35 | $458.75 | $0.00 |
| Wheat | $299.47 | $101.20 | $39.93 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | 55.0 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $291.50 |
| Wheat | 47.67 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $332.74 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Jeff Davis County
$1,391,640
96 payments dated Jan 8, 2025 to Dec 5, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $566,795 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $310,613 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $263,716 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $236,606 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $13,910 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Jeff Davis), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (77% vs 75%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 1, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 34% | 33% | 33% |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 77% | 70% | 75% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 63% | 55% | 53% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 97% | 95% | 98% |
| Cotton Harvested | 61% | 55% | 48% |
| Corn Harvested | 97% | 95% | 96% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 2, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Nov 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Jeff Davis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Jeff Davis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 3 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Jeff Davis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Jeff Davis County was in no drought, and the worst part was abnormally dry (D0) on 34% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Jeff Davis County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Jeff Davis County (since Oct 27, 2021). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Jeff Davis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Santa Teresa (170 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Roswell (193 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.