Fayette County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Fayette County, TX was in severe drought (D2); week 7 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 20% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 68% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans toward near-normal rain and the NWS forecast peaks at a 64% rain chance on Tuesday (high 78°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Fayette County with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 21 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 20% of normal
- Last 60 days 72% of normal
- Last 90 days 68% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 86°, low 69°, 21% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 78°, low 53°, 64% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 77°, low 53°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers, high 79°, low 56°, 25% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 75°, low 52°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 70°, low 49°, 19% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Sunday Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 47°, 9% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Fayette County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Fayette County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Fayette County grew about 3,803 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 110% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 3,458 pounds per acre. That was the 12th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2016 at 4,615 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 993.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Fayette County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Fayette County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Fayette County
Forecast for the center point of Fayette County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 86° 69° SSE 5–10 mph 21% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 78° 53° WNW 0–10 mph 64% rain
- Wed Sunny 77° 53° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Thu Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers 79° 56° SSE 0–5 mph 25% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 75° 52° N 0–10 mph 5% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 70° 49° NNE 0–10 mph 19% rain
- Sun Mostly Sunny 69° 47° N 0–10 mph 9% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Oct 23, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 2, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 2, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.52 in; same month last year 1.31 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (75 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 2, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Fayette County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
La Grange weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 267-day growing season |
Mar 4 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 25 |
Nov 25 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 299-day growing season |
Feb 15 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 13 |
Dec 10 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 18 |
Smithville weather station (17 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 251-day growing season |
Mar 12 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 11 |
Nov 19 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 285-day growing season |
Feb 26 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 29 |
Dec 3 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 11 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (La Grange, Smithville), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Fayette County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Fayette County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Fayette County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Fayette County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 100% of the county. 7 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Fayette County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Fayette County (since Oct 23, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Fayette County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (21 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.