Lavaca County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Lavaca County, TX in severe drought (D2); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 7 straight weeks. Rain has run 54% of normal over the last 30 days (below normal) and 59% over 90 days; Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 81°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Lavaca County with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 55 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 54% of normal
- Last 60 days 76% of normal
- Last 90 days 59% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 86°, low 67°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 86°, low 69°, 6% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 81°, low 55°, 90% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 76°, low 52°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 80°, low 53°, 10% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 53°, 6% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 75°, low 54°, 20% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Lavaca County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Lavaca County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Giddings 55 mi | Oct 26 | $359 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Guide: How to read a USDA sale barn report
All weights at the 1 nearest barns
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Lavaca County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Lavaca County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Lavaca County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Lavaca County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 97% of the county. 7 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Lavaca County?
No burn ban is listed for Lavaca County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Lavaca County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (55 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.