Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Ellis County, TX in moderate drought (D1), with 5% at severe drought (D2), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 10 weeks running. Rain has run 42% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 49% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and Monday carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 84°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Ellis County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 150 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 42% of normal
- Last 60 days 63% of normal
- Last 90 days 49% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 79°, low 65°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 84°, low 65°, 90% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 74°, low 52°, 34% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 74°, low 50°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 76°, low 50°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 71°, low 48°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 71°, low 49°, 20% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Ellis County
Forecast for the center point of Ellis County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 79° 65° ESE 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Mon Mostly Sunny 84° 65° S 5–20 mph 90% rain
- Tue Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 74° 52° W 0–15 mph 34% rain
- Wed Sunny 74° 50° NNW 0–5 mph 2% rain
- Thu Sunny 76° 50° WSW 0–5 mph 5% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 71° 48° N 0–5 mph 5% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 71° 49° NNE 0–5 mph 20% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Aug 4, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.17 in; same month last year 1.39 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Ellis County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Ferris weather station (15 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 253-day growing season |
Mar 12 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 31 |
Nov 19 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 278-day growing season |
Mar 1 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 19 |
Dec 1 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 13 |
Waxahachie weather station (6 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 245-day growing season |
Mar 16 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 3 |
Nov 16 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 31 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 272-day growing season |
Mar 3 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 20 |
Nov 29 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 8 |
short record Based on only 18 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Ferris, Waxahachie), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 5% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Ellis County (since Aug 4, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (150 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Ada (167 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; McAlester (188 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.