Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Ellis County, TX in moderate drought (D1), with 5% at severe drought (D2), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 10 weeks running. Rain has run 42% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 49% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and Monday carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 84°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Ellis County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 150 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 42% of normal
- Last 60 days 63% of normal
- Last 90 days 49% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 79°, low 65°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 84°, low 65°, 90% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 74°, low 52°, 34% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 74°, low 50°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 76°, low 50°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 71°, low 48°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 71°, low 49°, 20% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Ellis County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.62 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.43 /cwt ($2.48 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.72 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.13 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $277.78 | $37.04 |
| Corn | $377.73 | $50.36 |
| Grain Sorghum | $278.33 | $37.11 |
| Oats | $209.21 | $27.90 |
| Seed Cotton | $417.64 | $55.68 |
| Soybeans | $206.35 | $27.51 |
| Sunflower Seed | $366.26 | $48.83 |
| Wheat | $267.49 | $35.67 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 48.0 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $308.64 |
| Corn | 83.44 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $419.70 |
| Grain Sorghum | 58.35 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $309.26 |
| Oats | 59.0 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $232.46 |
| Seed Cotton | 1076.42 pound/ac × $0.43 | $464.04 |
| Soybeans | 18.84 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $229.28 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1620.02 pound/ac × $0.25 | $406.95 |
| Wheat | 42.58 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $297.21 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $274.50 | $16.38 | $36.60 |
| Corn | $407.75 | $482.39 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum | $288.40 | $211.80 | $38.45 |
| Oats | $207.91 | $177.65 | $27.72 |
| Seed Cotton | $427.20 | $556.97 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans | $230.35 | $423.99 | $0.00 |
| Sunflower Seed | $354.67 | $272.25 | $47.29 |
| Wheat | $294.88 | $207.41 | $39.32 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 50.0 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $305.00 |
| Corn | 90.07 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $453.05 |
| Grain Sorghum | 60.46 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $320.44 |
| Oats | 60.16 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $231.01 |
| Seed Cotton | 1101.07 pound/ac × $0.43 | $474.67 |
| Soybeans | 21.03 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $255.94 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1570.02 pound/ac × $0.25 | $394.08 |
| Wheat | 46.94 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $327.64 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Ellis County
$10,253,369
2,586 payments dated Jan 16, 2025 to Dec 18, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $3,864,318 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $2,098,070 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $2,015,213 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $582,941 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $489,826 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $373,608 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $282,749 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2025 | $197,152 |
Plus 11 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Ellis), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 5% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Ellis County (since Aug 4, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (150 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Ada (167 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; McAlester (188 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.