Chaves County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Chaves County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with 18% at severe drought (D2); week 148 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 184% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 239% (well above normal); the NWS forecast peaks at a 24% rain chance on today (high 74°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Chaves County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Roswell is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 4 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 239% of normal
- Last 60 days 280% of normal
- Last 90 days 184% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 54°, 24% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 75°, low 45°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 68°, low 40°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 71°, low 43°, 1% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 68°, low 41°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 45°, 16% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 43°, 22% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Chaves County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Chaves County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Chaves County
Forecast for the center point of Chaves County.
- Wind Advisory
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 74° 54° S 10–20 mph 24% rain
- Mon Sunny 75° 45° W 5–15 mph 0% rain
- Tue Sunny 68° 40° NE 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 71° 43° S 0–10 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 68° 41° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 68° 45° E 0–5 mph 16% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 68° 43° N 0–5 mph 22% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Chaves County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Wind Advisory Moderate
Wind Advisory issued November 1 at 11:40AM MST until November 2 at 6:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.08 in; same month last year 1.72 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Chaves County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Roswell Ind Air Pk weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 223-day growing season |
Mar 29 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 15 |
Nov 7 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 26 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 250-day growing season |
Mar 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 1 |
Nov 16 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
Bitter Lakes Wl Refuge weather station (8 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 181-day growing season |
Apr 20 1 year in 10 it's after May 3 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 202-day growing season |
Apr 9 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 26 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Roswell Ind Air Pk, Bitter Lakes Wl Refuge), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Chaves County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Chaves County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Chaves County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Chaves County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 18% of the county. 148 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Chaves County?
No burn ban is listed for Chaves County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Chaves County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Roswell (4 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Clovis (101 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Santa Teresa (164 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.