Chaves County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Chaves County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with 18% at severe drought (D2); week 148 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 184% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 239% (well above normal); the NWS forecast peaks at a 24% rain chance on today (high 74°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Chaves County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Roswell is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 4 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 239% of normal
- Last 60 days 280% of normal
- Last 90 days 184% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 54°, 24% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 75°, low 45°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 68°, low 40°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 71°, low 43°, 1% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 68°, low 41°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 45°, 16% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 43°, 22% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Chaves County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Chaves County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Roswell 4 mi | Oct 26 | $383 |
| Clovis 101 mi | Oct 28 | $394 |
| Santa Teresa 164 mi | Oct 30 | $378 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
18% of the county in severe drought or worse, 148 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 18% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 148 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 2 pasture types. Up to 4 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-28 | 4 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-06-01 | 2025-11-28 | 2 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Jul 28, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Chaves) · crop year 2026 - Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Chaves declared · crop year 2026 - Jun 2, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Chaves) · crop year 2025 - Mar 25, 2025 · Drought
Chaves declared · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Chaves County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Animal health notices: New Mexico
Statewide notices from the New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board. The agency does not publish county-by-county zones, so these are not specific to Chaves County.
- Oct 27, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm cases in Doña Ana County - Oct 23, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Hidalgo County - Oct 21, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Otero County - Oct 15, 2026 news release
NM confirms two additional New World screwworm cases
Suspect a case? Call the New Mexico Livestock Board at 505-841-6161 (official page).
Source: New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board (nmdeptag.nmsu.edu); each item is dated by the agency. Latest item as of Oct 27, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Chaves County
Forecast for the center point of Chaves County.
- Dense Fog Advisory
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 74° 54° S 10–20 mph 24% rain
- Mon Sunny 75° 45° W 5–15 mph 0% rain
- Tue Sunny 68° 40° NE 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 71° 43° S 0–10 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 68° 41° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 68° 45° E 0–5 mph 16% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 68° 43° N 0–5 mph 22% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Chaves County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Dense Fog Advisory Moderate
Dense Fog Advisory issued November 1 at 5:43AM MST until November 1 at 10:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.08 in; same month last year 1.72 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (92 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Chaves County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Roswell Ind Air Pk weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 223-day growing season |
Mar 29 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 15 |
Nov 7 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 26 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 250-day growing season |
Mar 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 1 |
Nov 16 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
Bitter Lakes Wl Refuge weather station (8 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 181-day growing season |
Apr 20 1 year in 10 it's after May 3 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 202-day growing season |
Apr 9 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 26 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Roswell Ind Air Pk, Bitter Lakes Wl Refuge), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Chaves County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.74 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.75 /cwt ($2.66 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.62 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $686.30 | $91.51 |
| Seed Cotton | $1,197.41 | $159.65 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 151.6 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $762.55 |
| Seed Cotton | 3086.18 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,330.45 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $443.75 | $431.34 | $12.41 |
| Corn | $643.97 | $562.02 | $81.95 |
| Grain Sorghum | $368.58 | $335.81 | $32.77 |
| Oats | $241.47 | $259.05 | $0.00 |
| Seed Cotton | $1,139.85 | $976.60 | $151.98 |
| Wheat | $451.42 | $430.45 | $20.97 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 80.83 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $493.06 |
| Corn | 142.25 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $715.52 |
| Grain Sorghum | 77.27 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $409.53 |
| Oats | 69.87 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $268.30 |
| Seed Cotton | 2937.84 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,266.50 |
| Wheat | 71.86 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $501.58 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Chaves County
$5,052,554
384 payments dated Jan 8, 2025 to Dec 23, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $1,783,734 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2023 | $800,154 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $679,698 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $615,048 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $498,086 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $146,048 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $133,290 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $102,330 |
Plus 9 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Chaves), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
New Mexico crop and pasture condition
New Mexico statewide, not just your county. From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 52% | 33% | 15% -3 vs last week |
Progress
| New Mexico | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), New Mexico rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 10, 2026in 9 daysFirst half of property taxes due to the county treasurerNew Mexico property tax · November 10 every year · §7-38-38 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 30 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Dec 10, 2026in 39 daysLast day to pay the first half without interestNew Mexico property tax · December 10 every year · §7-38-49 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 18, 2026in 47 daysNew Mexico ACEP/RCPP application ranking cutoff (FY 2027)NRCS conservation programs
Details and source
NRCS takes applications year-round; apply by this date to be ranked for this fiscal year's funding.Date posted: NRCS Application Cutoff Dates page (New Mexico)Source: USDA NRCS · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Feb 28, 2027in 119 daysReport livestock in the county on January 1 to the county assessorNew Mexico property tax · last day of February every year · §7-36-21 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Date posted: NM Property Tax Division Order No. 25-45, Notice of Reporting Requirements (tax year 2026) (§7-36-21 NMSA 1978)Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Coming up: PRF rainfall insurance for 2027 (30 days left) · ARC/PLC 2026 election and enrollment (40 days left) · LFP, LIP and ELAP for 2026 losses (120 days left)
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 540 lb per acre, well below normal (74% of the 1991-2020 average of 732).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (94% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 1, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Chaves County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Chaves County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Chaves County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Chaves County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 18% of the county. 148 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Chaves County?
No burn ban is listed for Chaves County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Chaves County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Roswell (4 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Clovis (101 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Santa Teresa (164 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.