Chaves County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Chaves County, NM was abnormally dry (D0), with 18% at severe drought (D2); week 148 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 184% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 239% (well above normal); the NWS forecast peaks at a 24% rain chance on today (high 74°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Chaves County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Roswell is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 4 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 239% of normal
- Last 60 days 280% of normal
- Last 90 days 184% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 54°, 24% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 75°, low 45°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 68°, low 40°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 71°, low 43°, 1% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 68°, low 41°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 45°, 16% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 43°, 22% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Chaves County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Chaves County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Chaves County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.74 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.75 /cwt ($2.66 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.62 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $686.30 | $91.51 |
| Seed Cotton | $1,197.41 | $159.65 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 151.6 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $762.55 |
| Seed Cotton | 3086.18 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,330.45 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $443.75 | $431.34 | $12.41 |
| Corn | $643.97 | $562.02 | $81.95 |
| Grain Sorghum | $368.58 | $335.81 | $32.77 |
| Oats | $241.47 | $259.05 | $0.00 |
| Seed Cotton | $1,139.85 | $976.60 | $151.98 |
| Wheat | $451.42 | $430.45 | $20.97 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 80.83 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $493.06 |
| Corn | 142.25 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $715.52 |
| Grain Sorghum | 77.27 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $409.53 |
| Oats | 69.87 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $268.30 |
| Seed Cotton | 2937.84 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,266.50 |
| Wheat | 71.86 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $501.58 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Chaves County
$5,052,554
384 payments dated Jan 8, 2025 to Dec 23, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $1,783,734 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2023 | $800,154 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $679,698 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $615,048 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $498,086 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $146,048 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $133,290 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $102,330 |
Plus 9 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Chaves), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
New Mexico crop and pasture condition
New Mexico statewide, not just your county. From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 52% | 33% | 15% -3 vs last week |
Progress
| New Mexico | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), New Mexico rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Chaves County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Chaves County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Chaves County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Chaves County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 18% of the county. 148 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Chaves County?
No burn ban is listed for Chaves County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Chaves County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Roswell (4 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Clovis (101 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Santa Teresa (164 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.