Willacy County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Willacy County, TX in moderate drought (D1), with 2% at severe drought (D2); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 11 straight weeks. Over 90 days rain is at 85% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 233% (well above normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 44% on Saturday (high 79°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Willacy County with up to 5 monthly payments.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 233% of normal
- Last 60 days 105% of normal
- Last 90 days 85% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 87°, low 70°, 1% rain, wind 2–10 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 89°, low 72°, 2% rain, wind 3–15 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 91°, low 67°, 20% rain, wind 6–9 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 82°, low 64°, 3% rain, wind 0–9 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 86°, low 66°, 27% rain, wind 2–10 mph
- Friday Chance Rain Showers, high 82°, low 64°, 41% rain, wind 3–13 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 79°, low 62°, 44% rain, wind 5–13 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Willacy County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Willacy County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Willacy County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.56 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.51 /cwt ($2.53 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $4.02 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | $387.47 | $51.66 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $300.37 | $40.05 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $335.33 | $44.71 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $320.02 | $42.67 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $737.19 | $98.29 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $491.50 | $65.53 |
| Sesame Seed | $233.43 | $31.12 |
| Soybeans | $295.73 | $39.43 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | 85.59 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $430.52 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 66.35 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $333.74 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 70.3 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $372.59 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 67.09 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $355.58 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 1900.03 pound/ac × $0.43 | $819.10 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 1266.79 pound/ac × $0.43 | $546.11 |
| Sesame Seed | 648.42 pound/ac × $0.40 | $259.37 |
| Soybeans | 27.0 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $328.59 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | $399.33 | $423.28 | $0.00 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $338.39 | $366.04 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $323.98 | $289.23 | $34.75 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $324.65 | $257.60 | $43.29 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $760.89 | $543.61 | $101.45 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $614.06 | $445.23 | $81.87 |
| Sesame Seed | $229.18 | $363.73 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans | $288.40 | $294.00 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | 88.21 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $443.70 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 74.75 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $375.99 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 67.92 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $359.98 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 68.06 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $360.72 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 1961.09 pound/ac × $0.43 | $845.43 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 1582.68 pound/ac × $0.43 | $682.29 |
| Sesame Seed | 658.49 pound/ac × $0.39 | $254.64 |
| Soybeans | 26.33 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $320.44 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Willacy County
$21,261,256
2,649 payments dated Jan 28, 2025 to Dec 23, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $9,882,122 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $4,449,332 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $3,986,937 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $2,110,459 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $311,647 |
| Price Loss Coverage | 2024 | $196,986 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2024 | $187,110 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2023 | $57,236 |
Plus 9 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Willacy), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Willacy County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Willacy County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Willacy County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Willacy County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 2% of the county. 11 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Willacy County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Willacy County (since Aug 30, 2023). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Willacy County?
No USDA-reported sale barn within 200 miles.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Grapefruit Trees 2027: last day to buy crop insurance; Nov 1, 2026: Lemon Trees 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.