Valencia County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Valencia County, NM was in moderate drought (D1) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map; four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 95%. Valencia County has had 74% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 186% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; today carries the week's highest rain chance at 87% (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Valencia County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 3 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 74% of normal
- Last 60 days 276% of normal
- Last 90 days 186% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 70°, low 47°, 87% rain, wind 15–30 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers then Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 50% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 36°, 2% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 65°, low 37°, 11% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 63°, low 35°, 12% rain, wind 5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Valencia County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Valencia County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Valencia County
Forecast for the center point of Valencia County.
- Flood Watch
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning
- Windy on 2 days
- Today Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 70° 47° S 15–30 mph 87% rain
- Mon Chance Rain Showers then Sunny 63° 36° W 5–25 mph 50% rain
- Tue Sunny 63° 36° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 66° 36° SW 5–10 mph 2% rain
- Thu Sunny 63° 36° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 65° 37° N 0–5 mph 11% rain
- Sat Sunny 63° 35° N 5 mph 12% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
Open burning, campfires, fireworks, welding/grinding, smoking are prohibited
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Valencia County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 2:09PM MST until November 2 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued November 1 at 4:33PM MST until November 1 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.19 in; same month last year 1.77 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: Frijoles (Wildfire, NM), about 97 mi from the county center; 15,949 acres, 100% contained, perimeter of Sep 14, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Valencia County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Los Lunas 3 Ssw weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 178-day growing season |
Apr 23 1 year in 10 it's after May 6 |
Oct 21 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 7 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 201-day growing season |
Apr 8 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 26 |
Oct 31 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 18 |
Bernardo weather station (20 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 166-day growing season |
Apr 29 1 year in 10 it's after May 13 |
Oct 14 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 187-day growing season |
Apr 17 1 year in 10 it's after May 3 |
Oct 23 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 10 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Los Lunas 3 Ssw, Bernardo), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Valencia County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Valencia County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Valencia County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Valencia County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 95% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Valencia County?
No burn ban is listed for Valencia County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Valencia County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (3 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Roswell (160 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Santa Teresa (197 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.