Valencia County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Valencia County, NM was in moderate drought (D1) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map; four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 95%. Valencia County has had 74% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 186% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; today carries the week's highest rain chance at 87% (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Valencia County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 3 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 74% of normal
- Last 60 days 276% of normal
- Last 90 days 186% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 70°, low 47°, 87% rain, wind 15–30 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers then Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 50% rain, wind 5–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 36°, 2% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 63°, low 36°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 65°, low 37°, 11% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 63°, low 35°, 12% rain, wind 5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Valencia County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Valencia County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Valencia County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.74 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.80 /cwt ($2.69 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.58 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $808.02 | $107.74 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 178.49 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $897.80 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $222.18 | $223.86 | $0.00 |
| Corn | $765.88 | $561.60 | $102.12 |
| Oats | $292.82 | $332.69 | $0.00 |
| Wheat | $266.80 | $499.62 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 40.47 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $246.87 |
| Corn | 169.18 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $850.98 |
| Oats | 84.73 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $325.36 |
| Wheat | 42.47 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $296.44 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Valencia County
$162,018
100 payments dated Jan 21, 2025 to Dec 18, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $64,555 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $49,280 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $19,015 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $13,560 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $6,800 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2024 | $4,825 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2025 | $1,457 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $1,320 |
Plus 2 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Valencia), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
New Mexico crop and pasture condition
New Mexico statewide, not just your county. From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 52% | 33% | 15% -3 vs last week |
Progress
| New Mexico | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), New Mexico rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Valencia County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Valencia County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Valencia County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Valencia County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 95% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Valencia County?
No burn ban is listed for Valencia County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Valencia County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (3 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Roswell (160 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Santa Teresa (197 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.