Uvalde County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Uvalde County, TX was in moderate drought (D1), with 9% at extreme drought (D3); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 5 straight weeks. Over 90 days rain is at 48% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 67% (below normal); the NWS forecast peaks at a 74% rain chance on today (high 84°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Uvalde County with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is San Angelo, 150 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 67% of normal
- Last 60 days 62% of normal
- Last 90 days 48% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Sunny, high 84°, low 67°, 74% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 80°, low 51°, 9% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 77°, low 54°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny, high 79°, low 57°, 4% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 77°, low 53°, 22% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 70°, low 50°, 45% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Sunday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 48°, 11% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Uvalde County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Uvalde County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Uvalde County grew about 1,463 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 114% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 1,288 pounds per acre. That was the 11th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2007 at 1,977 pounds per acre; worst: 1988 at 343.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 6, 2026 | Nov 5, 2026 (3 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Uvalde County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Uvalde County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.61 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.40 /cwt ($2.46 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.85 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | $646.69 | $86.22 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $177.42 | $23.66 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $414.61 | $55.28 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $199.29 | $26.57 |
| Oats irrigated | $182.02 | $24.27 |
| Oats nonirrigated | $117.02 | $15.60 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $1,560.53 | $208.07 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $270.53 | $36.07 |
| Sesame Seed | $256.25 | $34.17 |
| Wheat irrigated | $236.65 | $31.55 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $101.08 | $13.48 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn irrigated | 142.85 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $718.54 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 39.19 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $197.13 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 86.92 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $460.68 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 41.78 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $221.43 |
| Oats irrigated | 51.33 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $202.24 |
| Oats nonirrigated | 33.0 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $130.02 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 4022.09 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,733.92 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 697.27 pound/ac × $0.43 | $300.59 |
| Sesame Seed | 711.8 pound/ac × $0.40 | $284.72 |
| Wheat irrigated | 37.67 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $262.94 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 16.09 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $112.31 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $201.32 | $16.38 | $26.84 |
| Corn irrigated | $692.50 | $673.71 | $18.79 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $177.37 | $7.95 | $23.65 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $452.67 | $298.77 | $60.36 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $218.32 | $66.68 | $29.11 |
| Oats irrigated | $206.22 | $113.05 | $27.50 |
| Oats nonirrigated | $132.47 | $100.13 | $17.66 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $1,599.16 | $1,250.21 | $213.22 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $268.01 | $655.42 | $0.00 |
| Sesame Seed | $267.34 | $283.80 | $0.00 |
| Wheat irrigated | $236.02 | $227.50 | $8.52 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $100.51 | $8.50 | $13.40 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 36.67 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $223.69 |
| Corn irrigated | 152.97 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $769.44 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 39.18 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $197.08 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 94.9 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $502.97 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 45.77 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $242.58 |
| Oats irrigated | 59.67 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $229.13 |
| Oats nonirrigated | 38.33 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $147.19 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 4121.64 pound/ac × $0.43 | $1,776.84 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 690.77 pound/ac × $0.43 | $297.79 |
| Sesame Seed | 768.13 pound/ac × $0.39 | $297.04 |
| Wheat irrigated | 37.57 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $262.24 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 16.0 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $111.68 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Uvalde County
$9,150,664
641 payments dated Jan 13, 2025 to Dec 17, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $3,497,789 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $1,188,942 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $781,412 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $609,278 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $459,501 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $382,703 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $378,965 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $374,980 |
Plus 19 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Uvalde), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (77% vs 75%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 1, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 34% | 33% | 33% |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 77% | 70% | 75% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 63% | 55% | 53% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 97% | 95% | 98% |
| Cotton Harvested | 61% | 55% | 48% |
| Corn Harvested | 97% | 95% | 96% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 2, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Nov 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Uvalde County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Uvalde County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Uvalde County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Uvalde County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 9% of the county. 5 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Uvalde County?
No burn ban is listed for Uvalde County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Uvalde County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: San Angelo (150 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Giddings (180 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.