Trinity County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Trinity County, TX was in moderate drought (D1), with 9% at severe drought (D2); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 1 straight week. Rain has run 30% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 93% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the best rain chance this week is 98% on Tuesday (high 78°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 6–10 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain). Trinity County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 2 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 123 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 30% of normal
- Last 60 days 99% of normal
- Last 90 days 93% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 6–10) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 8–14) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Oct 31, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 65°, 9% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 68°, 22% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 78°, low 53°, 98% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 74°, low 49°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 76°, low 50°, 20% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 75°, low 48°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 75°, low 50°, 19% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe drought (D2) began (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Trinity County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Giddings 123 mi | Oct 26 | $359 |
| Hope 200 mi | Oct 29 | $372 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Guide: How to read a USDA sale barn report
All weights at the 2 nearest barns
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
9% of the county in severe drought or worse, 1 week running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 9% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 1 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 7 pasture types. Up to 2 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Ryegrass | 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2026-02-09 | 2 |
| Full Season Improved | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-02-09 | 2 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2026-02-09 | 2 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-02-09 | 2 |
| Short Ssn Spring Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-05-31 | 2026-02-09 | 2 |
| Short Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-09 | 1 |
| Shrt Ssn Fall_Wtr Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-09 | 1 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Apr 24, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Trinity) · crop year 2026 - Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Trinity declared · crop year 2026
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Trinity County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Screwworm (Texas Animal Health Commission)
Not in a screwworm zone
Nearest infested zone: 326 mi straight-line (Infested Zone 04). Statewide: 13 counties touch an infested zone, 1 the surveillance zone. See the map.
Latest statewide screwworm orders and animal-health alerts
- Oct 31, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - Culberson and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Modified Executive Director Order - Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Second Modified Executive Director Order - El Paso and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 29, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - El Paso County - Oct 29, 2026 modified
TAHC Modified Executive Director Order - Jeff Davis and Presidio Counties - Oct 9, 2026 fever tick
TAHC Issues Cattle Fever Tick Quarantine Zone Requirements Reminder - Oct 1, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Requirements for Animals Moving from Affected States - Sep 15, 2026 CWD
TAHC Issues Annual Reminder of Chronic Wasting Disease Requirements for Exotic Susceptible Species - Aug 31, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Releases First Eligible New World Screwworm Infested Zones - 02.A and 03 - Aug 24, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Movement Requirements for Cattle From Mexico
Check wounds and navels. Suspect a case? Call the Commission's veterinarian on call, 1-800-550-8242.
Source: Texas Animal Health Commission screwworm zone map (zones as of Oct 31, 2026), screwworm orders and news releases; each item is dated by the Commission. Its orders, not this page, set movement rules. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Trinity County
Forecast for the center point of Trinity County.
- Today Partly Sunny 84° 65° NE 0–5 mph 9% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 84° 68° SE 5–10 mph 22% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 78° 53° SW 0–10 mph 98% rain
- Wed Sunny 74° 49° NW 0–5 mph 2% rain
- Thu Slight Chance Rain Showers 76° 50° SW 0–5 mph 20% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 75° 48° N 0–5 mph 2% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 75° 50° N 0–5 mph 19% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Oct 28, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.88 in; same month last year 1.18 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (92 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Trinity County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Crockett weather station (23 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 251-day growing season |
Mar 13 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 2 |
Nov 17 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 280-day growing season |
Feb 24 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 17 |
Nov 30 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 8 |
Lufkin Angelina Co Ap weather station (25 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 247-day growing season |
Mar 11 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 4 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 30 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 278-day growing season |
Feb 25 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 17 |
Nov 28 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 6 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Crockett, Lufkin Angelina Co Ap), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Trinity County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.56 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.53 /cwt ($2.54 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.82 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.82 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Trinity County
$171,855
50 payments dated May 30, 2025 to Jun 2, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $171,855 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Trinity), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 13, 2026in 12 daysApply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 moneyNRCS conservation programs
Details and source
NRCS takes applications year-round; apply by this date to be ranked for this fiscal year's funding.Date posted: NRCS Application Cutoff Dates page (Texas)Source: USDA NRCS · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 30 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Jan 1, 2027in 61 daysProperty values set for the tax yearTexas property tax · January 1 every year · Tax Code Sec. 23.01(a)
Details and source
What the law says
Date that taxable values (except for inventories appraised Sept. 1) and qualification for certain exemptions are determined for the tax year (Secs. 11.42(a), 23.01(a), 23.12(f)).Source: Texas Comptroller · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Feb 1, 2027in 92 daysLast year's property taxes become delinquent if not paidTexas property tax · February 1 every year · Tax Code Sec. 31.02(a)
Details and source
What the law says
Date that taxes imposed the previous year become delinquent if a bill was mailed on or before Jan. 10 of the current year (Secs. 31.02(a), 31.04(a)).Source: Texas Comptroller · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 120 daysLivestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP): application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.206(a)
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Coming up: EQIP and CSP FY2027 first ranking cutoff (12 days left) · PRF rainfall insurance for 2027 (30 days left) · ARC/PLC 2026 election and enrollment (40 days left) · LFP, LIP and ELAP for 2026 losses (120 days left)
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 3,103 lb per acre, a little above normal (111% of the 1991-2020 average of 2,791).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (28% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 1, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Trinity County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Trinity County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Trinity County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Trinity County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 9% of the county. 1 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Trinity County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Trinity County (since Oct 28, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Trinity County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (123 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Hope (200 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.