Smith County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Smith County, TX was in severe drought (D2), with a sliver (<1%) at extreme drought (D3); week 9 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 50% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 23% (well below normal); the best rain chance this week is 77% on Tuesday (high 75°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Smith County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Hope is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 132 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 23% of normal
- Last 60 days 61% of normal
- Last 90 days 50% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 82°, low 63°, 5% rain, wind 5 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny, high 85°, low 67°, 68% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 75°, low 50°, 77% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 72°, low 47°, 2% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 74°, low 47°, 18% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 73°, low 46°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 73°, low 48°, 17% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Smith County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Smith County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.62 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.40 /cwt ($2.46 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.72 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $384.80 | $578.24 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum | $303.71 | $209.19 | $40.49 |
| Oats | $200.45 | $177.65 | $22.80 |
| Wheat | $276.41 | $172.04 | $36.85 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 85.0 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $427.55 |
| Grain Sorghum | 63.67 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $337.45 |
| Oats | 58.0 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $222.72 |
| Wheat | 44.0 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $307.12 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Smith County
$524,841
223 payments dated Jan 3, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $229,473 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $173,020 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $48,452 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $36,539 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2023 | $24,183 |
| Supp Disaster Relief Spec Crops 1 | 2024 | $10,141 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $2,253 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $780 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Smith), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Smith County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Smith County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Smith County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Smith County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 9 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Smith County?
No burn ban is listed for Smith County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Smith County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Hope (132 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; McAlester (179 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Giddings (180 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.