Real County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Real County, TX was abnormally dry (D0); 59% of the county is abnormally dry (D0) or worse, down from 63% four weeks earlier. Real County has had 64% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 69% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 74% on Monday (high 78°). Real County is not on FSA's 2026 LFP list yet, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is San Angelo, 118 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 64% of normal
- Last 60 days 85% of normal
- Last 90 days 69% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 77°, low 65°, 6% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 78°, low 62°, 74% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Tuesday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Sunny, high 71°, low 50°, 15% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 73°, low 52°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 75°, low 51°, 1% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 51°, 15% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 50°, 29% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Real County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
A county next to Real County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (Bandera County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Uvalde County, TX). The IRS counts your county plus every county touching it.
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Real County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.61 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.39 /cwt ($2.46 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.75 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | $230.87 | $110.10 | $30.78 |
| Oats | $124.42 | $100.13 | $16.59 |
| Wheat | $151.59 | $101.20 | $20.21 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | 48.4 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $256.52 |
| Oats | 36.0 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $138.24 |
| Wheat | 24.13 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $168.43 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Real County
$428,455
35 payments dated Feb 6, 2025 to Nov 3, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $324,548 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $45,042 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $28,398 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $22,427 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $6,231 |
| Non-Insured Assistance Program | 2024 | $1,809 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Real), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Real County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Not on FSA's 2026 LFP county list as of Oct 29, 2026. FSA updates the list as drought changes.
What is the drought level in Real County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Real County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was abnormally dry (D0) on 59% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Real County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Real County (since Aug 31, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Real County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: San Angelo (118 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Giddings (174 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.