McLennan County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of McLennan County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map; week 8 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 63% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 92% (near normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 82% on Monday (high 83°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes McLennan County with up to 3 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 96 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 92% of normal
- Last 60 days 82% of normal
- Last 90 days 63% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 82°, low 67°, 3% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 83°, low 66°, 82% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 75°, low 52°, 49% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 74°, low 52°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 76°, low 51°, 4% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 72°, low 49°, 5% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 70°, low 51°, 19% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in McLennan County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
McLennan County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for McLennan County
Forecast for the center point of McLennan County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 82° 67° ESE 5–10 mph 3% rain
- Mon Mostly Sunny 83° 66° S 10–15 mph 82% rain
- Tue Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 75° 52° WNW 5–15 mph 49% rain
- Wed Sunny 74° 52° NNW 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 76° 51° WSW 0–10 mph 4% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 72° 49° N 0–10 mph 5% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 70° 51° N 0–10 mph 19% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.04 in; same month last year 3.05 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest McLennan County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Waco Dam weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 256-day growing season |
Mar 9 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 4 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 282-day growing season |
Feb 25 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 21 |
Dec 3 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 12 |
Waco Rgnl Ap weather station (5 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 245-day growing season |
Mar 15 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 6 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 272-day growing season |
Mar 2 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 24 |
Nov 28 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 7 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Waco Dam, Waco Rgnl Ap), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is McLennan County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. McLennan County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 3 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in McLennan County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of McLennan County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 51% of the county. 8 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in McLennan County?
No burn ban is listed for McLennan County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near McLennan County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (96 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; San Angelo (192 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.