Live Oak County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Live Oak County, TX was in severe drought (D2), with 16% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 10 weeks running. Over 90 days rain is at 65% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 42% (well below normal); Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 56% (high 82°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain). Live Oak County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 146 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 42% of normal
- Last 60 days 71% of normal
- Last 90 days 65% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 87°, low 66°, 2% rain, wind 3–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 89°, low 69°, 28% rain, wind 3–12 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 82°, low 56°, 56% rain, wind 0–9 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 79°, low 56°, 0% rain, wind 1–6 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 82°, low 58°, 11% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 79°, low 55°, 15% rain, wind 1–9 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 76°, low 55°, 31% rain, wind 1–9 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Live Oak County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Live Oak County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Live Oak County
Forecast for the center point of Live Oak County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 87° 66° ESE 3–5 mph 2% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 89° 69° SSE 3–12 mph 28% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 82° 56° W 0–9 mph 56% rain
- Wed Sunny 79° 56° NE 1–6 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 82° 58° ESE 0–5 mph 11% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 79° 55° NE 1–9 mph 15% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 76° 55° NE 1–9 mph 31% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 4.06 in; same month last year 2.61 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Live Oak County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Choke Canyon Dam weather station (11 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 302-day growing season |
Feb 8 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 8 |
Dec 6 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 17 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 337-day growing season |
Jan 23 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 28 |
Dec 25 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 28 |
Calliham weather station (16 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 303-day growing season |
Feb 9 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 7 |
Dec 8 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 16 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 338-day growing season |
Jan 23 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 26 |
Dec 24 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 29 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Choke Canyon Dam, Calliham), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Live Oak County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Live Oak County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Live Oak County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Live Oak County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 16% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Live Oak County?
No burn ban is listed for Live Oak County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Live Oak County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (146 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.