Kenedy County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Kenedy County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 27% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 10 weeks running. Rain has run 200% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 64% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 59% on Saturday (high 76°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Kenedy County with up to 5 monthly payments.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 200% of normal
- Last 60 days 83% of normal
- Last 90 days 64% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 87°, low 72°, 2% rain, wind 7–16 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 89°, low 63°, 31% rain, wind 2–8 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 79°, low 64°, 3% rain, wind 1–9 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 85°, low 67°, 52% rain, wind 1–10 mph
- Friday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 79°, low 62°, 46% rain, wind 3–12 mph
- Saturday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 76°, low 57°, 59% rain, wind 8–13 mph
- Sunday Chance Rain Showers, high 72°, low 54°, 29% rain, wind 5–17 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Kenedy County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Kenedy County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Kenedy County grew about 2,766 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 121% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 2,291 pounds per acre. That was the 11th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2010 at 3,560 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 261.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Kenedy County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Kenedy County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Kenedy County
Forecast for the center point of Kenedy County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 87° 72° SE 7–16 mph 2% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 89° 63° S 2–8 mph 31% rain
- Wed Mostly Sunny 79° 64° NE 1–9 mph 3% rain
- Thu Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 85° 67° SE 1–10 mph 52% rain
- Fri Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 79° 62° NNE 3–12 mph 46% rain
- Sat Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 76° 57° NNE 8–13 mph 59% rain
- Sun Chance Rain Showers 72° 54° N 5–17 mph 29% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 2, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 2, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 4.85 in; same month last year 3.84 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (75 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 2, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Kenedy County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Port Mansfield weather station (25 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 362-day growing season |
Jan 12 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 19 |
Jan 1 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 365-day growing season |
Jan 7 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 9 |
Jan 5 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 14 |
Raymondville weather station (32 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 340-day growing season |
Jan 21 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 27 |
Dec 26 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 365-day growing season |
Jan 7 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 8 |
Jan 2 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 9 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Port Mansfield, Raymondville), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Kenedy County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Kenedy County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Kenedy County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Kenedy County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 27% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Kenedy County?
No burn ban is listed for Kenedy County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Kenedy County?
No USDA-reported sale barn within 200 miles.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.