Kenedy County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Kenedy County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 27% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 10 weeks running. Rain has run 201% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 63% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 47% on Saturday (high 78°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Kenedy County with up to 5 monthly payments.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 201% of normal
- Last 60 days 82% of normal
- Last 90 days 63% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (40% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 86°, low 68°, 1% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny, high 87°, low 71°, 2% rain, wind 3–14 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 89°, low 64°, 29% rain, wind 3–8 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 80°, low 62°, 2% rain, wind 0–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 84°, low 64°, 34% rain, wind 1–9 mph
- Friday Chance Rain Showers, high 79°, low 62°, 39% rain, wind 2–13 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 78°, low 60°, 47% rain, wind 3–12 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Kenedy County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Kenedy County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
68% of the county in severe drought or worse, 10 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 68% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 10 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 8 pasture types. Up to 5 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season Improved | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-01 | 5 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-01 | 5 |
| Annual Ryegrass | 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2026-01-01 | 4 |
| Forage Sorghum | 2026-05-15 to 2026-09-15 | 2026-09-08 | 4 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-05-31 | 2025-11-18 | 4 |
| Short Ssn Spring Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-05-31 | 2025-11-18 | 4 |
| Short Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-02-15 | 2025-11-18 | 3 |
| Shrt Ssn Fall_Wtr Sml Grn | 2025-11-15 to 2026-02-15 | 2025-11-18 | 3 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Kenedy declared · crop year 2026 - Sep 30, 2025 · Flood, Flash Flooding, Excessive Rain, Moisture, Humidity, Severe Storms, Thunderstorms
Neighboring county declared (counts for Kenedy) · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Kenedy County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Screwworm (Texas Animal Health Commission)
Not in a screwworm zone
Nearest infested zone: 285 mi straight-line (Infested Zone 24). Statewide: 13 counties touch an infested zone, 1 the surveillance zone. See the map.
Latest statewide screwworm orders and animal-health alerts
- Nov 1, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - Jeff Davis and Presidio Counties - Oct 31, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - Culberson and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Modified Executive Director Order - Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties - Oct 31, 2026 modified
TAHC Second Modified Executive Director Order - El Paso and Hudspeth Counties - Oct 29, 2026 new
TAHC Executive Director Order - El Paso County - Oct 9, 2026 fever tick
TAHC Issues Cattle Fever Tick Quarantine Zone Requirements Reminder - Oct 1, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Requirements for Animals Moving from Affected States - Sep 15, 2026 CWD
TAHC Issues Annual Reminder of Chronic Wasting Disease Requirements for Exotic Susceptible Species - Aug 31, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Releases First Eligible New World Screwworm Infested Zones - 02.A and 03 - Aug 24, 2026 screwworm
TAHC Establishes New World Screwworm Movement Requirements for Cattle From Mexico
Check wounds and navels. Suspect a case? Call the Commission's veterinarian on call, 1-800-550-8242.
Source: Texas Animal Health Commission screwworm zone map (zones as of Nov 1, 2026), screwworm orders and news releases; each item is dated by the Commission. Its orders, not this page, set movement rules. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Kenedy County
Forecast for the center point of Kenedy County.
- Coastal Flood Statement
- Today Mostly Sunny 86° 68° E 2–7 mph 1% rain
- Mon Partly Sunny 87° 71° SE 3–14 mph 2% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 89° 64° SE 3–8 mph 29% rain
- Wed Sunny 80° 62° NE 0–8 mph 2% rain
- Thu Sunny 84° 64° ESE 1–9 mph 34% rain
- Fri Chance Rain Showers 79° 62° NE 2–13 mph 39% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 78° 60° NE 3–12 mph 47% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Coastal Flood Statement Minor
Coastal Flood Statement issued October 31 at 10:50PM CDT until November 2 at 6:00AM CST by NWS Brownsville TX
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 4.85 in; same month last year 3.84 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Kenedy County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Port Mansfield weather station (25 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 362-day growing season |
Jan 12 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 19 |
Jan 1 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 365-day growing season |
Jan 7 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 9 |
Jan 5 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 14 |
Raymondville weather station (32 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 340-day growing season |
Jan 21 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 27 |
Dec 26 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 365-day growing season |
Jan 7 1 year in 10 it's after Feb 8 |
Jan 2 1 year in 10 it's before Dec 9 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Port Mansfield, Raymondville), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Kenedy County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.55 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.52 /cwt ($2.53 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.92 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $276.15 | $36.82 |
| Grain Sorghum | $325.84 | $43.44 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 61.0 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $306.83 |
| Grain Sorghum | 68.31 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $362.04 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $289.73 | $312.00 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum | $341.72 | $238.55 | $45.56 |
| Seed Cotton | $411.35 | $1,100.78 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 64.0 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $321.92 |
| Grain Sorghum | 71.64 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $379.69 |
| Seed Cotton | 1060.2 pound/ac × $0.43 | $457.05 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Kenedy County
$98,511
3 payments dated May 30, 2025 to May 30, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $98,511 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Kenedy), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (70% vs 70%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 45% | 35% | 20% +2 vs last week |
| Corn | 35% | 30% | 35% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 52% | 30% | 18% +0 vs last week |
| Peanut | 23% | 38% | 39% -1 vs last week |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 70% | 64% | 70% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 55% | 46% | 46% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 95% | 90% | 97% |
| Cotton Harvested | 55% | 46% | 43% |
| Corn Harvested | 95% | 92% | 95% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 13, 2026in 12 daysApply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 moneyNRCS conservation programs
Details and source
NRCS takes applications year-round; apply by this date to be ranked for this fiscal year's funding.Date posted: NRCS Application Cutoff Dates page (Texas)Source: USDA NRCS · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 30 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Jan 1, 2027in 61 daysProperty values set for the tax yearTexas property tax · January 1 every year · Tax Code Sec. 23.01(a)
Details and source
What the law says
Date that taxable values (except for inventories appraised Sept. 1) and qualification for certain exemptions are determined for the tax year (Secs. 11.42(a), 23.01(a), 23.12(f)).Source: Texas Comptroller · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Feb 1, 2027in 92 daysLast year's property taxes become delinquent if not paidTexas property tax · February 1 every year · Tax Code Sec. 31.02(a)
Details and source
What the law says
Date that taxes imposed the previous year become delinquent if a bill was mailed on or before Jan. 10 of the current year (Secs. 31.02(a), 31.04(a)).Source: Texas Comptroller · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Mar 1, 2027in 120 daysLivestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP): application and papers for 2026 losses are due by this date.FSA disaster programs · 7 CFR 1416.206(a)
Details and source
Source: USDA FSA · checked Oct 18, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Coming up: EQIP and CSP FY2027 first ranking cutoff (12 days left) · PRF rainfall insurance for 2027 (30 days left) · ARC/PLC 2026 election and enrollment (40 days left) · LFP, LIP and ELAP for 2026 losses (120 days left)
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 2,766 lb per acre, well above normal (121% of the 1991-2020 average of 2,291).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (72% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 1, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Kenedy County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Kenedy County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Kenedy County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Kenedy County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 27% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Kenedy County?
No burn ban is listed for Kenedy County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Kenedy County?
No USDA-reported sale barn within 200 miles.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.