Kay County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Kay County, OK was in moderate drought (D1), with 6% at severe drought (D2); week 8 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Over 90 days rain is at 91% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 75% (below normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 76% on Monday (high 77°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Kay County with up to 2 monthly payments, and Tulsa is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 84 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 75% of normal
- Last 60 days 91% of normal
- Last 90 days 91% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 73°, low 61°, 6% rain, wind 7–20 mph
- Monday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 77°, low 55°, 76% rain, wind 9–23 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 46°, 9% rain, wind 6–16 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 68°, low 44°, 4% rain, wind 3–9 mph
- Thursday Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 44°, 30% rain, wind 3–8 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 46°, 7% rain, wind 3–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 71°, low 47°, 24% rain, wind 3–9 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Kay County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Kay County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Kay County
Forecast for the center point of Kay County.
- Today Mostly Cloudy 73° 61° SSE 7–20 mph 6% rain
- Mon Showers And Thunderstorms 77° 55° S 9–23 mph 76% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 68° 46° WNW 6–16 mph 9% rain
- Wed Sunny 68° 44° NW 3–9 mph 4% rain
- Thu Chance Rain Showers 68° 44° N 3–8 mph 30% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 68° 46° NNW 3–7 mph 7% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 71° 47° WNW 3–9 mph 24% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Oklahoma Forestry Services burn-ban map, which carries county commissioners' bans and the Governor's burn-ban proclamations (source, rules). County row as of Mar 17, 2025. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.01 in; same month last year 2.29 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Kay County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Ponca City Muni Ap weather station (6 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 200-day growing season |
Apr 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 27 |
Oct 27 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 14 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 222-day growing season |
Mar 29 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 15 |
Nov 5 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 21 |
Blackwell 1ssw weather station (8 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 199-day growing season |
Apr 12 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 28 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 218-day growing season |
Apr 1 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 18 |
Nov 6 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 23 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Ponca City Muni Ap, Blackwell 1ssw), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Kay County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Kay County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Kay County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Kay County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 6% of the county. 8 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Kay County?
No burn ban is listed for Kay County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Kay County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Tulsa (84 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; El Reno (99 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Pratt (102 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.