Jasper County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Jasper County, TX was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map; week 2 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 20% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 61% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 98% on Tuesday (high 82°). Jasper County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 177 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 20% of normal
- Last 60 days 37% of normal
- Last 90 days 61% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 84°, low 70°, 39% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 82°, low 53°, 98% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 77°, low 49°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers, high 80°, low 53°, 29% rain, wind 0 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 77°, low 49°, 6% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 73°, low 46°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Sunday Mostly Sunny, high 71°, low 44°, 10% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Jasper County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Jasper County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Jasper County grew about 2,745 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 130% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 2,110 pounds per acre. That was the 2nd best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2024 at 3,112 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 1,220.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe drought (D2) began (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 20, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 (17 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Jasper County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Jasper County
Forecast for the center point of Jasper County.
- Today Slight Chance Rain Showers 84° 70° S 5–10 mph 39% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 82° 53° SW 0–10 mph 98% rain
- Wed Sunny 77° 49° N 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Thu Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers 80° 53° 0 mph 29% rain
- Fri Sunny 77° 49° N 0–5 mph 6% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 73° 46° N 0–5 mph 15% rain
- Sun Mostly Sunny 71° 44° N 0–10 mph 10% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Oct 16, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 2, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 2, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 4.76 in; same month last year 1.30 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (75 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 2, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Jasper County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Town Bluff Dam weather station (10 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 258-day growing season |
Mar 9 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 2 |
Nov 22 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 290-day growing season |
Feb 19 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 16 |
Dec 7 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 15 |
Sam Rayburn Dam weather station (22 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 280-day growing season |
Feb 24 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 23 |
Dec 1 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 9 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 317-day growing season |
Feb 3 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 5 |
Dec 22 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 26 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Town Bluff Dam, Sam Rayburn Dam), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Jasper County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Jasper County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Jasper County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Jasper County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 80% of the county. 2 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Jasper County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Jasper County (since Oct 16, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Jasper County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (177 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.