Hartley County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Hartley County, TX was abnormally dry (D0), with a sliver (<1%) at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 0%. Over 90 days rain is at 200% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 238% (well above normal); today carries the week's highest rain chance at 81% (high 69°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Hartley County (county seat: Channing) with up to 5 monthly payments, and Dalhart is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 13 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 238% of normal
- Last 60 days 339% of normal
- Last 90 days 200% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 69°, low 55°, 81% rain, wind 20–25 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 67°, low 43°, 14% rain, wind 20–30 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 62°, low 38°, 0% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 40°, 7% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 61°, low 36°, 1% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 62°, low 39°, 10% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 63°, low 38°, 18% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Hartley County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Hartley County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Hartley County
Forecast for the center point of Hartley County.
- Windy on 2 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy 69° 55° S 20–25 mph 81% rain
- Mon Sunny 67° 43° SW 20–30 mph 14% rain
- Tue Sunny 62° 38° NNW 5–20 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 66° 40° SSW 5–15 mph 7% rain
- Thu Sunny 61° 36° N 5–15 mph 1% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 62° 39° SW 0–5 mph 10% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 63° 38° N 5–10 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.43 in; same month last year 1.37 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Hartley County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Dalhart Muni Ap weather station (13 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 181-day growing season |
Apr 21 1 year in 10 it's after May 4 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 7 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 200-day growing season |
Apr 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 25 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 17 |
Dalhart 6 Sw weather station (12 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 170-day growing season |
Apr 28 1 year in 10 it's after May 9 |
Oct 16 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 3 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 189-day growing season |
Apr 16 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 30 |
Oct 24 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 10 |
short record Based on only 14 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Dalhart Muni Ap, Dalhart 6 Sw), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in Texas · County seat: Channing
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Hartley County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Hartley County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Hartley County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Hartley County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Hartley County?
No burn ban is listed for Hartley County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Hartley County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Dalhart (13 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Wildorado (53 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Tulia (102 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.