Hale County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Hale County, TX was abnormally dry (D0), with 37% at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 37%. Hale County has had 153% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 159% over 90 days; no day in the 7-day forecast tops a 16% rain chance and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain). Hale County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Tulia is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 32 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 153% of normal
- Last 60 days 244% of normal
- Last 90 days 159% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 75°, low 47°, 16% rain, wind 10–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 61°, low 41°, 0% rain, wind 0–20 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 66°, low 46°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 62°, low 39°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 61°, low 41°, 7% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 60°, low 40°, 9% rain, wind 5 mph
- Sunday Sunny, high 60°, low 39°, 4% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Hale County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Hale County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Hale County grew about 1,476 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 108% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 1,370 pounds per acre. That was the 14th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2007 at 2,120 pounds per acre; worst: 1987 at 456.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Hale County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Hale County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Hale County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.76 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.69 /cwt ($2.63 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.44 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.67 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.01 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $252.72 | $33.70 |
| Corn | $577.74 | $77.03 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $234.06 | $31.21 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $81.42 | $10.86 |
| Oats | $165.49 | $22.07 |
| Peanuts | $697.82 | $93.04 |
| Safflower | $91.59 | $12.21 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $660.55 | $88.07 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $189.77 | $25.30 |
| Sesame Seed | $189.41 | $25.25 |
| Soybeans | $367.15 | $48.95 |
| Sunflower Seed irrigated | $288.46 | $38.46 |
| Sunflower Seed nonirrigated | $153.15 | $20.42 |
| Wheat irrigated | $254.17 | $33.89 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $106.54 | $14.21 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 43.67 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $280.80 |
| Corn | 127.62 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $641.93 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 49.07 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $260.07 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 17.07 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $90.47 |
| Oats | 46.67 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $183.88 |
| Peanuts | 2461.47 pound/ac × $0.32 | $775.36 |
| Safflower | 367.0 pound/ac × $0.28 | $101.77 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 1702.49 pound/ac × $0.43 | $733.94 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 489.1 pound/ac × $0.43 | $210.85 |
| Sesame Seed | 526.13 pound/ac × $0.40 | $210.45 |
| Soybeans | 33.52 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $407.94 |
| Sunflower Seed irrigated | 1275.9 pound/ac × $0.25 | $320.51 |
| Sunflower Seed nonirrigated | 677.44 pound/ac × $0.25 | $170.17 |
| Wheat irrigated | 40.46 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $282.41 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 16.96 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $118.38 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $221.41 | $16.38 | $29.52 |
| Corn | $608.74 | $572.21 | $36.53 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | $249.33 | $189.56 | $33.24 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | $89.06 | $119.09 | $0.00 |
| Oats | $155.52 | $203.49 | $0.00 |
| Peanuts | $732.58 | $415.48 | $97.68 |
| Safflower | $122.52 | $90.17 | $16.34 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | $642.74 | $695.39 | $0.00 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | $204.08 | $266.08 | $0.00 |
| Sesame Seed | $208.17 | $283.80 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans | $367.15 | $58.28 | $48.95 |
| Sunflower Seed irrigated | $307.10 | $307.82 | $0.00 |
| Sunflower Seed nonirrigated | $151.79 | $300.56 | $0.00 |
| Wheat irrigated | $227.41 | $260.74 | $0.00 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $107.55 | $96.60 | $10.95 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 40.33 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $246.01 |
| Corn | 134.47 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $676.38 |
| Grain Sorghum irrigated | 52.27 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $277.03 |
| Grain Sorghum nonirrigated | 18.67 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $98.95 |
| Oats | 45.0 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $172.80 |
| Peanuts | 2584.07 pound/ac × $0.32 | $813.98 |
| Safflower | 494.67 pound/ac × $0.28 | $136.13 |
| Seed Cotton irrigated | 1656.6 pound/ac × $0.43 | $714.16 |
| Seed Cotton nonirrigated | 525.98 pound/ac × $0.43 | $226.75 |
| Sesame Seed | 598.13 pound/ac × $0.39 | $231.30 |
| Soybeans | 33.52 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $407.94 |
| Sunflower Seed irrigated | 1359.44 pound/ac × $0.25 | $341.22 |
| Sunflower Seed nonirrigated | 671.96 pound/ac × $0.25 | $168.66 |
| Wheat irrigated | 36.2 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $252.68 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 17.12 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $119.50 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Hale County
$55,012,298
8,158 payments dated Jan 2, 2025 to Dec 19, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $22,467,087 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $10,111,884 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $7,937,049 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $3,479,444 |
| Price Loss Coverage | 2024 | $2,941,445 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $2,299,389 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2025 | $1,004,585 |
| CRP annual rent | 2024 | $924,041 |
Plus 20 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Hale), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (77% vs 75%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 1, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 34% | 33% | 33% |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 77% | 70% | 75% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 63% | 55% | 53% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 97% | 95% | 98% |
| Cotton Harvested | 61% | 55% | 48% |
| Corn Harvested | 97% | 95% | 96% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 2, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Nov 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Hale County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Hale County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Hale County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Hale County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 37% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Hale County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Hale County (since Jul 25, 2022). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Hale County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Tulia (32 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Wildorado (79 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Clovis (83 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Grapes 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.