Upshur County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Upshur County, TX was in extreme drought (D3), with 4% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 10 straight weeks. Rain has run 15% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 39% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain) and the NWS forecast peaks at a 89% rain chance on Tuesday (high 72°). Upshur County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Hope is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 101 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 15% of normal
- Last 60 days 27% of normal
- Last 90 days 39% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 82°, low 65°, 68% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 72°, low 47°, 89% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Patchy Fog then Sunny, high 71°, low 44°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 75°, low 46°, 4% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 72°, low 42°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 40°, 7% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Sunday Sunny, high 67°, low 38°, 5% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Upshur County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Upshur County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Upshur County grew about 3,216 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 105% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 3,076 pounds per acre. That was the 18th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2024 at 3,487 pounds per acre; worst: 2011 at 1,975.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exceptional drought (D4) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (24 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Upshur County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Upshur County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.62 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.42 /cwt ($2.48 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.72 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | $330.71 | $209.19 | $44.09 |
| Wheat | $280.62 | $172.04 | $37.42 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Sorghum | 69.33 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $367.45 |
| Wheat | 44.67 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $311.80 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Upshur County
$31,124
8 payments dated Feb 7, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $11,645 |
| Livestock Indeminity Payments Program | 2025 | $10,753 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $8,392 |
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $244 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $91 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Upshur), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (77% vs 75%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 1, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 34% | 33% | 33% |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 77% | 70% | 75% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 63% | 55% | 53% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 97% | 95% | 98% |
| Cotton Harvested | 61% | 55% | 48% |
| Corn Harvested | 97% | 95% | 96% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 2, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Nov 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Upshur County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Upshur County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Upshur County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Upshur County was in extreme drought (D3), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 4% of the county. 10 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Upshur County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Upshur County (since Oct 15, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Upshur County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Hope (101 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; McAlester (159 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Ada (172 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.