Union County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Union County, NM was in severe drought (D2), with 25% at extreme drought (D3); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 33 straight weeks. Rain has run 129% of normal over the last 30 days (above normal) and 113% over 90 days; today carries the week's highest rain chance at 81% (high 63°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Union County (county seat: Clayton) is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 5 monthly payments, and Dalhart is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 60 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 129% of normal
- Last 60 days 191% of normal
- Last 90 days 113% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 63°, low 49°, 81% rain, wind 20–30 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 60°, low 39°, 36% rain, wind 20–25 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 58°, low 37°, 0% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Wednesday Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 61°, low 38°, 28% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 57°, low 36°, 4% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 58°, low 38°, 15% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 58°, low 35°, 29% rain, wind 5–15 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Union County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Union County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Union County
Forecast for the center point of Union County.
- Wind Advisory
- Windy on 2 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 63° 49° S 20–30 mph 81% rain
- Mon Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 60° 39° W 20–25 mph 36% rain
- Tue Sunny 58° 37° N 5–20 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 61° 38° SW 5–15 mph 28% rain
- Thu Sunny 57° 36° N 5–15 mph 4% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 58° 38° SW 5–10 mph 15% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 58° 35° N 5–15 mph 29% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Union County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Wind Advisory Moderate
Wind Advisory issued November 1 at 11:40AM MST until November 2 at 5:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.69 in; same month last year 1.76 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Union County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Grenville weather station (11 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 156-day growing season |
May 5 1 year in 10 it's after May 20 |
Oct 9 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 27 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 173-day growing season |
Apr 26 1 year in 10 it's after May 9 |
Oct 17 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 4 |
Clayton Muni Air Pk weather station (18 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 170-day growing season |
Apr 27 1 year in 10 it's after May 10 |
Oct 17 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 2 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 192-day growing season |
Apr 16 1 year in 10 it's after May 1 |
Oct 26 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 12 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Grenville, Clayton Muni Air Pk), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Printable county brief (PDF) · Everything on one page · Hay prices in New Mexico · County seat: Clayton
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Union County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Union County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Union County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Union County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 25% of the county. 33 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Union County?
No burn ban is listed for Union County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Union County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Dalhart (60 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; La Junta LJLC (102 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; La Junta Winter (104 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.