Sierra County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Sierra County, NM was abnormally dry (D0) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 5% at moderate drought (D1); 5% of the county is in moderate drought (D1) or worse, down from 100% four weeks earlier. Sierra County has had 114% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 216% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the NWS forecast peaks at a 80% rain chance on today (high 74°). Sierra County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Santa Teresa is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 91 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 114% of normal
- Last 60 days 343% of normal
- Last 90 days 216% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 53°, 80% rain, wind 18–32 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 70°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 6–18 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 65°, low 43°, 0% rain, wind 2–6 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 70°, low 43°, 0% rain, wind 2–16 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 69°, low 43°, 0% rain, wind 5–6 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 45°, 13% rain, wind 3–8 mph
- Saturday Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 42°, 15% rain, wind 5–12 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Sierra County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Sierra County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Sierra County
Forecast for the center point of Sierra County.
- Flood Watch
- Wind Advisory
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 74° 53° SSW 18–32 mph 80% rain
- Mon Sunny 70° 43° W 6–18 mph 2% rain
- Tue Sunny 65° 43° NE 2–6 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 70° 43° SSW 2–16 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 69° 43° NE 5–6 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 69° 45° ENE 3–8 mph 13% rain
- Sat Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 68° 42° N 5–12 mph 15% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
Campfires, open fires, open burning prohibited
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Sierra County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 11:22AM MST until November 1 at 10:00PM MST by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM - Wind Advisory Moderate
Wind Advisory issued November 1 at 9:21AM MST until November 1 at 8:00PM MST by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.79 in; same month last year 2.37 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Sierra County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Elephant Butte Dam weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 243-day growing season |
Mar 13 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 2 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 269-day growing season |
Mar 1 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 21 |
Nov 26 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 11 |
Truth Or Consequences weather station (3 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 220-day growing season |
Mar 30 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 19 |
Nov 5 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 24 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 247-day growing season |
Mar 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 4 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 1 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Elephant Butte Dam, Truth Or Consequences), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Sierra County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Sierra County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Sierra County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Sierra County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 5% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Sierra County?
No burn ban is listed for Sierra County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Sierra County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Santa Teresa (91 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Belen (116 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Roswell (156 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.