Rio Arriba County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Rio Arriba County, NM was in moderate drought (D1), with a sliver (<1%) at severe drought (D2); week 92 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 417% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 272% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 57°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Rio Arriba County with up to 5 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Belen, 121 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 417% of normal
- Last 60 days 434% of normal
- Last 90 days 272% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 57°, low 36°, 90% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers, high 46°, low 29°, 63% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 28°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 28°, 12% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 53°, low 28°, 1% rain, wind 0 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 54°, low 28°, 6% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 53°, low 27°, 7% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Rio Arriba County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Rio Arriba County
Forecast for the center point of Rio Arriba County.
- Flood Advisory
- Flood Warning
- Flood Watch
- Freeze on 6 nights
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms 57° 36° SW 10–15 mph 90% rain
- Mon Chance Rain Showers 46° 29° W 5–20 mph 63% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 55° 28° NW 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Mostly Sunny 55° 28° SW 0–15 mph 12% rain
- Thu Sunny 53° 28° 0 mph 1% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 54° 28° NW 0–5 mph 6% rain
- Sat Sunny 53° 27° NW 0–5 mph 7% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Rio Arriba County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Advisory Minor
Flood Advisory issued November 1 at 7:34AM MST until November 3 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 2:09PM MST until November 2 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 7:35AM MST until November 3 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 7:36AM MST until November 2 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.70 in; same month last year 2.51 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: Frijoles (Wildfire, NM), about 60 mi from the county center; 15,949 acres, 100% contained, perimeter of Sep 14, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Rio Arriba County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
El Vado Dam weather station (6 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 94-day growing season |
Jun 13 1 year in 10 it's after Jul 1 |
Sep 18 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 119-day growing season |
May 28 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 15 |
Sep 26 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 13 |
Tierra Amarilla 4 N weather station (19 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 98-day growing season |
Jun 11 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 26 |
Sep 20 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 8 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 122-day growing season |
May 28 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 11 |
Sep 28 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (El Vado Dam, Tierra Amarilla 4 N), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Rio Arriba County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Rio Arriba County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Rio Arriba County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Rio Arriba County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 92 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Rio Arriba County?
No burn ban is listed for Rio Arriba County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Rio Arriba County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (121 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; La Junta LJLC (195 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Apples 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.