Rio Arriba County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Rio Arriba County, NM was in moderate drought (D1), with a sliver (<1%) at severe drought (D2); week 92 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 417% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 272% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 90% (high 57°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Rio Arriba County with up to 5 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Belen, 121 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 417% of normal
- Last 60 days 434% of normal
- Last 90 days 272% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 57°, low 36°, 90% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers, high 46°, low 29°, 63% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 28°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 55°, low 28°, 12% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 53°, low 28°, 1% rain, wind 0 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 54°, low 28°, 6% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 53°, low 27°, 7% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning (National Weather Service) | Nov 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 (30 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Rio Arriba County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
Prices
5-wt steers, nearest barns
Steers 500–599 lb, $/cwt, weekly average.
| Barn | Last sale | 5-wt steers |
|---|---|---|
| Belen 121 mi | Oct 30 | $375 |
| La Junta LJLC 195 mi | Oct 28 | $406 |
How to read this
Each line is one barn's head-weighted average for 5-weight steers (500–599 lb) in that week; gaps are weeks with no sale or no lots that size. Past sales, not a bid.
Dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt, per 100 lb), calculated from USDA AMS Market News sale reports (Medium & Large 1 and 1-2). Not a USDA-published average. ≈ $/head = $/cwt × the middle of the weight class ÷ 100.
Guide: How to read a USDA sale barn report
All weights at the 2 nearest barns
Drought
Drought, past 12 months
A sliver (<1%) of the county in severe drought or worse, 92 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: a sliver (<1%) of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 92 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
Programs
Drought pasture pay (LFP)
On FSA's 2026 list for 4 pasture types. Up to 5 monthly payments.
Bring head counts, grazing leases and pasture acres to your county FSA office.
How to read this
Each bar is a pasture type; the number is how many monthly payments it qualifies for (1 to 5).
Pasture table
| Pasture type | Grazing period | Qualifying date | Payments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season Improved | 2026-05-01 to 2026-10-15 | 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| Native Pasture | 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 | 2026-01-01 | 5 |
| Long Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-06-01 | 2025-11-01 | 4 |
| Short Season Small Grains | 2025-11-01 to 2026-03-15 | 2025-11-01 | 4 |
FSA "Counties & Pasture Types Eligible for 2026 LFP", file dated Oct 29, 2026 (download). FSA decides eligibility. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
USDA disaster declarations
- Jul 28, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Rio Arriba) · crop year 2026 - Jul 1, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Rio Arriba) · crop year 2026 - Apr 24, 2026 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Rio Arriba) · crop year 2026 - Apr 10, 2026 · Drought
Rio Arriba declared · crop year 2026 - Apr 14, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Rio Arriba) · crop year 2025 - Mar 31, 2025 · Drought
Rio Arriba declared · crop year 2025 - Mar 25, 2025 · Drought
Neighboring county declared (counts for Rio Arriba) · crop year 2025
"Declared" means USDA named this county. "Neighboring" means it touches a declared county. Either way, FSA emergency loans can open for about 8 months. FSA designation files (dated Jan 28, 2026, Oct 19, 2026). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
CRP emergency haying and grazing
Open Rio Arriba County is on FSA's emergency haying and grazing list, starting Sep 1, 2026. Trigger: D2 (severe) drought on the Drought Monitor. Get an updated conservation plan from FSA before cutting or turning out.
Before haying and grazing, contact your FSA county office to see if your county remains eligible and/or obtain a modified conservation plan. This list is cumulative for the year and current local conditions may have changed.
Source: FSA eligible-county table posted Oct 29, 2026 · map · FSA program page. FSA posts a new file every Thursday. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Animal health notices: New Mexico
Statewide notices from the New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board. The agency does not publish county-by-county zones, so these are not specific to Rio Arriba County.
- Oct 27, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm cases in Doña Ana County - Oct 23, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Hidalgo County - Oct 21, 2026 news release
NM confirms New World screwworm case in Otero County - Oct 15, 2026 news release
NM confirms two additional New World screwworm cases
Suspect a case? Call the New Mexico Livestock Board at 505-841-6161 (official page).
Source: New Mexico Department of Agriculture and New Mexico Livestock Board (nmdeptag.nmsu.edu); each item is dated by the agency. Latest item as of Oct 27, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
New FSA programs: watch list
| Date | Scope | Release | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Three Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Minnesota | USDA Designates Numerous Counties in Minnesota as Natural Disaster Areas Due to Drought | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Maine | USDA Offers Disaster Assistance to Agricultural Producers in Maine Impacted by Drought | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | North Carolina | USDA Designates 13 North Carolina Counties as a Natural Disaster Area | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma | USDA Designates Eight Oklahoma Counties as Natural Disaster Areas |
Weather & fire
Weather for Rio Arriba County
Forecast for the center point of Rio Arriba County.
- Flood Advisory
- Flood Warning
- Flood Watch
- Freeze on 6 nights
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms 57° 36° SW 10–15 mph 90% rain
- Mon Chance Rain Showers 46° 29° W 5–20 mph 63% rain
- Tue Mostly Sunny 55° 28° NW 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Mostly Sunny 55° 28° SW 0–15 mph 12% rain
- Thu Sunny 53° 28° 0 mph 1% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 54° 28° NW 0–5 mph 6% rain
- Sat Sunny 53° 27° NW 0–5 mph 7% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Rio Arriba County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Advisory Minor
Flood Advisory issued November 1 at 7:34AM MST until November 3 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 2:09PM MST until November 2 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 7:35AM MST until November 3 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Warning Severe
Flood Warning issued November 1 at 7:36AM MST until November 2 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.70 in; same month last year 2.51 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
Nearest current perimeter: Frijoles (Wildfire, NM), about 60 mi from the county center; 15,949 acres, 100% contained, perimeter of Sep 14, 2026.
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Rio Arriba County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
El Vado Dam weather station (6 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 94-day growing season |
Jun 13 1 year in 10 it's after Jul 1 |
Sep 18 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 119-day growing season |
May 28 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 15 |
Sep 26 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 13 |
Tierra Amarilla 4 N weather station (19 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 98-day growing season |
Jun 11 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 26 |
Sep 20 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 8 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 122-day growing season |
May 28 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 11 |
Sep 28 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (El Vado Dam, Tierra Amarilla 4 N), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
Money
FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Rio Arriba County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.74 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.66 /cwt ($2.61 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.47 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.43 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Oats | $184.39 | $24.59 |
| Wheat | $147.25 | $19.63 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Oats | 52.0 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $204.88 |
| Wheat | 23.44 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $163.61 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $740.16 | $223.86 | $98.69 |
| Oats | $199.66 | $193.80 | $5.86 |
| Wheat | $147.25 | $247.94 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 134.82 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $822.40 |
| Oats | 57.77 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $221.84 |
| Wheat | 23.44 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $163.61 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Rio Arriba County
$1,669,790
389 payments dated Jan 8, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $499,336 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $431,088 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $318,822 |
| Livestock Forage Disaster Program (Cof) | 2025 | $180,179 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $75,999 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2024 | $51,627 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $42,552 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $18,842 |
Plus 7 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Rio Arriba), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
New Mexico crop and pasture condition
New Mexico statewide, not just your county. From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 52% | 33% | 15% -3 vs last week |
Progress
| New Mexico | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), New Mexico rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
Deadlines
-
Nov 10, 2026in 9 daysFirst half of property taxes due to the county treasurerNew Mexico property tax · November 10 every year · §7-38-38 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 1, 2026in 30 daysLast day to buy 2027 pasture rain insurance (PRF)Crop insurance (RMA)
-
Dec 10, 2026in 39 daysLast day to pay the first half without interestNew Mexico property tax · December 10 every year · §7-38-49 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Dec 18, 2026in 47 daysNew Mexico ACEP/RCPP application ranking cutoff (FY 2027)NRCS conservation programs
Details and source
NRCS takes applications year-round; apply by this date to be ranked for this fiscal year's funding.Date posted: NRCS Application Cutoff Dates page (New Mexico)Source: USDA NRCS · checked Nov 1, 2026 -
Feb 28, 2027in 119 daysReport livestock in the county on January 1 to the county assessorNew Mexico property tax · last day of February every year · §7-36-21 NMSA 1978
Details and source
Date posted: NM Property Tax Division Order No. 25-45, Notice of Reporting Requirements (tax year 2026) (§7-36-21 NMSA 1978)Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department · checked Nov 1, 2026
All deadlines and report dates · FSA disaster-program deadlines are pending (no official feed).
Coming up: PRF rainfall insurance for 2027 (30 days left) · ARC/PLC 2026 election and enrollment (40 days left) · LFP, LIP and ELAP for 2026 losses (120 days left)
Guide: PRF insurance and the Dec 1 deadline
Land
Where it is, with barns within 200 mi
Dots are sale barns USDA reports on. Tap one for its latest prices.
Grass grown on rangeland and pasture
Grass grown in 2025: 275 lb per acre, well below normal (84% of the 1991-2020 average of 326).
How to read this
Each bar is one year's grass (darker = perennial grasses, lighter = annuals). The dashed line is the 1991-2020 average. A county average with cropland excluded, not your pasture.
How we got this
Satellite estimate of new above-ground growth of grasses and forbs for the year (annual + perennial, lb/acre), averaged over the county's grassland, pasture and shrubland (53% of the county in USDA's 2025 cropland map; farm fields are left out because the estimate isn't valid there, and the same 2025 map is used for every year). About about 120 m (RAP overview). Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform biomass v3 (data, Jones et al. 2021, CC0) and USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer.
Source: Rangeland Analysis Platform, 2025 season. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Useful links
Shipping cattle out of Texas
Each state sets its own entry rules for ID, health certificates and screwworm checks. Look up the state you're shipping to before you load.
- InterstateLivestock.com state-by-state entry rules
Source: InterstateLivestock.com (third-party site) · link checked Nov 1, 2026
- APHIS cattle animal disease traceability decision tree (PDF)
Source: USDA APHIS · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
AgriLife events in the High Plains
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension meetings, field days and CEU programs in the Panhandle.
- High Plains events and learning
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife · link checked Nov 1, 2026
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
When to pull cattle off wheat
Grazing past first hollow stem cuts grain yield. Oklahoma State's guide explains how to check a field, and its yearly trial reports first-hollow-stem dates by variety.
- Fall forage and first hollow stem dates by wheat variety, 2025–2026
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
- First hollow stem: a critical wheat growth stage (how to check)
Source: Oklahoma State University Extension · link last confirmed Oct 17, 2026 (site blocks automated checks)
Link only. Cownty doesn't copy or check this content; follow the source.
Common questions and nearby counties
Is Rio Arriba County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Rio Arriba County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Rio Arriba County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Rio Arriba County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 92 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Rio Arriba County?
No burn ban is listed for Rio Arriba County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Rio Arriba County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (121 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; La Junta LJLC (195 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Apples 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.