Panola County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Panola County, TX was in extreme drought (D3) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map; week 9 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Panola County has had 33% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 30% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain) and Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 99% (high 74°). Panola County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Hope, 112 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 33% of normal
- Last 60 days 36% of normal
- Last 90 days 30% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Partly Sunny, high 82°, low 68°, 47% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 48°, 99% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 73°, low 44°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 77°, low 47°, 9% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 75°, low 43°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 40°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Sunday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 38°, 6% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Panola County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Panola County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Panola County grew about 3,228 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 107% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 3,029 pounds per acre. That was the 13th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2024 at 3,699 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 1,232.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Panola County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Panola County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Panola County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.61 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.46 /cwt ($2.50 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.73 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.78 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $416.48 | $578.24 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum | $300.51 | $209.19 | $40.07 |
| Oats | $215.42 | $177.65 | $28.72 |
| Wheat | $282.69 | $172.04 | $37.69 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 92.0 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $462.76 |
| Grain Sorghum | 63.0 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $333.90 |
| Oats | 62.33 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $239.35 |
| Wheat | 45.0 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $314.10 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Panola County
$434,953
139 payments dated Jan 17, 2025 to Jun 27, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $424,832 |
| Marketing Assistance For Specialty Crops | 2025 | $8,712 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $1,409 |
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Panola), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Texas crop and pasture condition
Texas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (77% vs 75%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Nov 1, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat | 34% | 33% | 33% |
Progress
| Texas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 77% | 70% | 75% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 63% | 55% | 53% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 97% | 95% | 98% |
| Cotton Harvested | 61% | 55% | 48% |
| Corn Harvested | 97% | 95% | 96% |
Wheat pasture condition
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Nov 2, 2026 (ESMIS), Texas rows. Week ending Nov 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Panola County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Panola County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Panola County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Panola County was in extreme drought (D3), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 56% of the county. 9 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Panola County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Panola County (since Aug 4, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Panola County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Hope (112 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.