Menard County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Menard County, TX was in moderate drought (D1) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 4% at severe drought (D2); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 5 straight weeks. Menard County has had 285% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 135% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 80% on Monday (high 80°). Menard County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 1 monthly payment, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is San Angelo, 52 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 285% of normal
- Last 60 days 188% of normal
- Last 90 days 135% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 78°, low 64°, 2% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny, high 80°, low 53°, 80% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 70°, low 44°, 4% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 73°, low 47°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 74°, low 43°, 1% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 43°, 12% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 43°, 20% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Menard County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
A county next to Menard County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (Concho County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Tom Green County, TX). The IRS counts your county plus every county touching it.
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Menard County
Forecast for the center point of Menard County.
- Today Mostly Cloudy 78° 64° S 5–15 mph 2% rain
- Mon Mostly Sunny 80° 53° S 5–15 mph 80% rain
- Tue Sunny 70° 44° NW 0–15 mph 4% rain
- Wed Sunny 73° 47° SSW 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 74° 43° W 0–10 mph 1% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 68° 43° NNE 0–5 mph 12% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 67° 43° NE 0–5 mph 20% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.86 in; same month last year 2.00 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Menard County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Menard weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 204-day growing season |
Apr 7 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 23 |
Oct 30 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 15 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 224-day growing season |
Mar 27 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 14 |
Nov 5 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 24 |
Ft Mckavett weather station (15 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 214-day growing season |
Apr 2 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 23 |
Nov 2 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 19 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 237-day growing season |
Mar 17 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 10 |
Nov 10 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 29 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Menard, Ft Mckavett), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Menard County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Menard County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 1 monthly payment for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Menard County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Menard County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 4% of the county. 5 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Menard County?
No burn ban is listed for Menard County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Menard County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: San Angelo (52 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Giddings (181 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.