Medina County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Medina County, TX in severe drought (D2), with 2% at exceptional drought (D4); some part has been in severe drought (D2) or worse for 5 straight weeks. Over 90 days rain is at 55% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 67% (below normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and Monday carries the week's highest rain chance at 64% (high 84°). Medina County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 143 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 67% of normal
- Last 60 days 64% of normal
- Last 90 days 55% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 82°, low 67°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 67°, 64% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 78°, low 52°, 39% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 77°, low 54°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 79°, low 54°, 3% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 77°, low 53°, 15% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Saturday Chance Rain Showers, high 72°, low 52°, 32% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 2 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exceptional drought (D4) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 20, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 (18 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 6, 2026 | Nov 5, 2026 (4 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Medina County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Medina County
Forecast for the center point of Medina County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 82° 67° SE 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 84° 67° SSE 5–10 mph 64% rain
- Tue Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 78° 52° NNE 0–10 mph 39% rain
- Wed Sunny 77° 54° E 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 79° 54° ESE 0–10 mph 3% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 77° 53° NNE 0–10 mph 15% rain
- Sat Chance Rain Showers 72° 52° NE 0–10 mph 32% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Sep 14, 2026.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.33 in; same month last year 2.06 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Medina County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Hondo weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 274-day growing season |
Feb 28 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 17 |
Nov 27 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 8 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 305-day growing season |
Feb 12 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 7 |
Dec 9 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 17 |
Hondo Muni Ap weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 263-day growing season |
Mar 6 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 24 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 3 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 290-day growing season |
Feb 21 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 13 |
Dec 3 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 12 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Hondo, Hondo Muni Ap), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Medina County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Medina County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Medina County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Medina County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on 2% of the county. 5 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Medina County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Medina County (since Sep 14, 2026). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Medina County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (143 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; San Angelo (165 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.