Madison County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Madison County, TX in moderate drought (D1), with 43% at severe drought (D2); week 1 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Madison County has had 55% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 58% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 92% on Tuesday (high 75°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Madison County with up to 2 monthly payments, and Giddings is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 80 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 55% of normal
- Last 60 days 76% of normal
- Last 90 days 58% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 84°, low 63°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny, high 84°, low 65°, 55% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 75°, low 50°, 92% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 73°, low 48°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 76°, low 48°, 16% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 72°, low 46°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 71°, low 46°, 18% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe drought (D2) began (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Madison County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Madison County
Forecast for the center point of Madison County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 84° 63° E 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Mon Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny 84° 65° SE 5–15 mph 55% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 75° 50° W 0–10 mph 92% rain
- Wed Sunny 73° 48° N 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Thu Slight Chance Rain Showers 76° 48° W 0–5 mph 16% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 72° 46° N 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 71° 46° N 0–5 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.75 in; same month last year 1.01 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Madison County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Madisonville weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 240-day growing season |
Mar 16 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 7 |
Nov 11 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 25 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 268-day growing season |
Mar 2 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 25 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
Centerville weather station (20 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 239-day growing season |
Mar 20 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 10 |
Nov 12 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 30 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 265-day growing season |
Mar 6 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 29 |
Nov 26 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 6 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Madisonville, Centerville), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Madison County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Madison County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Madison County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Madison County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 43% of the county. 1 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Madison County?
No burn ban is listed for Madison County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Madison County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (80 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.